SEC's Downfall Coming Soon!

cinserious's picture
January 24, 2013 at 1:51a
42 Comments

 The SEC recruiting landscape is changing right before our eyes! Its been well documented that college football is cyclical and as of the last decade or so, we all know what conference has been at the top of it. Right  now we are on the verge of a new college football cycle and the SEC loosing its stranglehold. Urban Meyer's Ohio State Buckeyes are the avante guarde of this new change about to sweep the nation and rid the country of this unfortunate domination.

     Case-in point: Mark Stoops at Kentucky is recruiting hard and showing the conference that the Wildcats aren't the 'Jokers' anymore; L'Ville under Strong has put his stamp on the region with his ass-kicking of an SEC power on national TV in a BCS bowl game and strong recruiting; Tennesee under Butch Jones I predict will make waves in the next couple years on the field and take back the state in recruiting; and Vandy's been hot lately. The 'mighty SEC will start getting watered down a bit in recruiting and dominance (a good thing).

      On the flip side, the whole argument of the SEC being top heavy won't hold much weight though anymore. Alabama will continue to be top dawg down there but Florida after Urban's recruits fade out will flounder under MusCHUMP; South Cacalacky continues to be a 'medioce' team by SEC standards and I don't feel the Ole' Ballcoach has much left in him while fighting a fierce battle with UGA and Clemson for recruits; Georgia's top recruiting foe might very well be OSU which is already a loosing battle; LSU has Les Miles and every year he looks more  and more as a pathetic second-rate coach to Saban, he can pull in all the Louisiana talent but eventually that watering hole will dry up for him as recruits realise he's a fraud; Arkansas has BieLAMEa; Ole' Miss and Mississipi St. will continue to fight for Saban's scraps, all three are non-threats. That leaves Texas A&M as the sole team to upend Saban's control over the conference.

      Add all that to the fact we go to a 'playoff' system in '14 which means the conference champion actually has to work for a NC berth and I say in the next four years the SEC wins maybe one NC and gets knocked back down to earth with the rest of the BCS conferences. I can't wait to see it all play out while Urban Meyer creates a new CFB dynasty in Columbus. We all know the NCAA (and ESPN) won't do anything to make the SEC play on a level playing field so its up to the rest of the country to step up and take this 'mystique' away and start winning championships and now's the time to do it while that conference gets watered down a bit.
 

Comments

kevinfrenchfry's picture

i agree with you about the general scheme of whats going to happen but i dont htink its because of watered down recruiting.  What i think is happeneing is the media thinks the sec defenses are so great causing them to spike in the polls every single year.  In reality their defenses are vastly overrated.  To me the most telling part of the whole thing was bowl season nebraska, clemson, louisville, michigan, northwestern moved the ball successfully against georgia, lsu, florida, south carolina and vanderbilt, respectively. my worry with the sec is that bama is going to be there every single year and guess what? their defense is the absolute real deal and ohio state will probably have to overcome them to get urbans first NC at tOSU so to me it doenst really matter how bad the sec gets as long as they have a saban coached bama squad
 

popeurban's picture

Not sure I am following your logic.  I hear the watered down argument, but if the SEC teams (be it Kentucky, UT and Vandy) are still getting some of that top talent, then that means the B1G and others are not.  This would still seem to lead to SEC victories in head-to-head matchups with other conferences.
I hope the end is near, but I don't think your argument necessarily supports that.

cinserious's picture

What i meant was, uk, tenn, vandy, etc are starting to retain some high level in-state talent, meaning that talent isn't migrating to bama, lsu, Florida, etc which puts those teams over the top. Lville is another threat to the traditional sec powers. This doesn't mean the big ten gets these guys but at least the sec has to share the wealth amongst themselves a little more, thus leveling the paying field for all of us.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

popeurban's picture

Thanks for the reply, but I understood that.  I just feel that in the end, if the talent is still in the SEC that is not our endgame.  We need other B1G schools to recruit as well, if not better, than SEC schools.  Either way, I agree that it does not help the aforementioned top SEC teams if the bottom schools are getting better. We need to beat them head-to-head.

cinserious's picture

I agree that the B1G needs to do much, much better at recruiting and hiring/retaining coaching staffs but my point was that the SEC gets sooo oversensationalised because its top few teams are so damn good. If the conference filters its regional talent from top to bottom in the SEC, the conference really doesn't gain or loose but the perception will change. Maybe the media gets off their nutz. But one thing is for certain, other teams from other conferences HAVE to take the next few NCs.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

Ronrico86's picture

Where are these head to head matchups taking place?  In the south, besides alabama, when was the last time a good SEC team traveled to play a B1G team up north?  The big ten needs to start taking the bowl games seriously, until then we will not compete.  yes, they have alot of talent but so do the state of ohio, pennsylvania, michigan and illinois is getting there too.  I hate to say this because i am a michigan fan first a big ten fan second but Urban Meyer will force these knucklehead B1G Coaches to change their approach in recruiting and open up their recruting pitches.  ADs needs to open up thier checkbooks for better coaches like they did for their basketball teams.

DaytonBuckeye4life's picture

I agree with you I believe the sec is overrated now. it cracks me up that if Georgia would have beat Alabama they would have played in the NC game but if we would have been eligible all I've heard is your schedule was to weak. Georgia's only two games they played all year was Florida who got beat by Louisville and South Carolina who beat TTUN at the last second. They played they scrubs of the sec all year and almost beat Alabama but we played the hardest schedule in the BIG won every game and still all I heard about was how weak our schedule was I'm tired of the media being on the SEC's jockstrap can't wait to see them fall on their faces and our Buckeyes be the ones to do it. OK I'm done ranting.

popeurban's picture

I strongly dislike the SEC as much as anyone else, and for a long time I took up the fight that they are overrated, but the recent results seem to illustrate that they are that good.  Are they unbeatable, no, but they have been beating the rest of the conferences for the last seven years.

Smanpoint10's picture

We most certainly did not play the toughest schedule in the big ten

steensn's picture

I'm sorry, I just don't see it. Things seem cyclical because of population shifts and other factors. I don't see northern states moving to more football year round centric sports programs. I think we have a long period of time of SEC dominance unless they lose a bunch of really good coaches.

ODEEZ330's picture

Just don't see it. If ut uk and vandy improve doesn't that make sec even better. Its the sec ohio st nd texas usc and everyone else for a while.

O'Deez330
stark county football

lippertini's picture

Might want to add Clemson, Boise St., Oklahoma & maybe even TCU, too.

Smanpoint10's picture

usc and texas won't be at the top until kiffin and brown are gone

IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

What will bring the SEC down quicker than anything else is its belief in its own superiority. It takes a great deal of work to become the best but it requires 10 times the work to maintain it. We all saw how Florida laid an egg vs. Louisville. They were so overconfident it shot them in the foot. That won't be the last time it happens, either.

"Sherman ran an option play right through the south" - Greatest Civil War analogy EVER.

cplunk's picture

Its really about Bama and LSU.
Anybody who watched Georgia, South Carolina, or Florida in their bowl games can't have been too impressed. Nebraska was destroyed by us and destroyed by Wisconsin, but Georgia didn't pull away until very late. TSUN almost beat SC. Florida got destroyed. Even LSU lost to Clemson (that was a great game- well played by both teams).
Really its all about Saban and Miles. Has been since Meyer left, with the one exception of Meyer's former recruit being purchased by Auburn.
"SEC Dominance" is a complete myth resulting in massive over-rating of most of their good teams. Alabama and LSU dominance is NOT a myth.
I am no more worried about playing any non-Bama or non-LSU team than I am any other good school from a different conference.
To me, its all about those two. Until somebody knocks off a Bama or an LSU in a championship game, the SEC is going to get the hype. 
 

Buckeye06's picture

It comes down to paying for the top coaches.  The SEC does it, the other conferences don't.  The BIG lost one of it's better coaches to Arkansasa b/c, among other reasons, $$$.  Don't tell me today that Arky is a better job than Wisky, cause it isn't.  
Pay up or shut up; OSU and Michigan are willing to pay to compete; if Nebraska, PSU(if they recover) and a couple others want to get on board, then better for the conference.  If not, it will be the big 2 and little 10 or 12 or 14.
 

OSUStu's picture

Dude, break that up into some paragraphs or something.  This is about as easy to read as one giant run on sentence.
That being said, most of what you say about the SEC is already the case.  Still, they have the rep as the most dominant conference and it is deserved.
 

If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else, it will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.  ~ Bruce Lee

GlueFingers Lavelli's picture

If we want the SEC to go back to being a normal conference we need for Miami and Florida State to become powerhouses again.  I don't think Miami has the fan support for a serious revival. 

Dustin Fox was our leading tackler as a corner.... because his guy always caught the ball.

cinserious's picture

While I agree that a strong Miami and FSU help keep the sec down, those teams being weak really help OSU in recruiting. The state of Florida has an embarrassment of riches when it comes to h.s. Talent and the buckeys are one of the biggest Beneficiaries when there aren't three top ten programs in it.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

cinserious's picture

SEC coaching can get over-hyped too. Saban's the real deal, A&M's coach probably is as well. However Les Miles is fortunate enough to get ALL the top LA talent but he is suspect as a coach. Georgia is a very talented state but is Richt all that good? Muschamp is taking advantage of Urban's recruits and the fact that MIA is down and Fl St. isn't where it used to be.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

GoldenBearBuckeye's picture

Totally agree.
But if you have enough talent, you win 10 games a year even though you can't coach your way out of a paper bag.  See, for example, Mack Brown

Run_Fido_Run's picture

You're exagerrating the point with Mack Brown. The only stretch during the last 30+ years in which UNC has been a good program was Brown's last six years there before moving on to Texas:

1992  North Carolina  9–3  5–3  3rd  W Peach  18  19
1993  North Carolina  10–3  6–2  2nd  L Gator  21  19
1994  North Carolina  8–4  5–3  T–3rd  L Sun  21 
1995  North Carolina  7–5  4–4  T–5th  W Carquest  
1996  North Carolina  10–2  6–2  T–2nd  W Gator  10  10
1997  North Carolina  10–1  7–1  2nd  Invited to Gator**  6  4

Mack Brown is a damn good coach - his track record proves it. Even with his recent struggles at Texas, he has gone 150-43 at Texas, with a NC, and 4 BCS appearances.
I agree, though, he's not as good as Nick Saban or Urbz. Coaches like Mack Brown that are really good, but not quite elite, become victims of their own success - they end up at elite programs, where they raise expectations to sky-high levels, but then cannot deliver quite at the very highest level. But Mack Brown can coach, pardner.

GoldenBearBuckeye's picture

NC played in the ACC when he put up these numbers, during, arguably the weakest of years (and before Miami, VT, BC). 
We disagree on this

btalbert25's picture

South Carolina wasn't a mediocre team, they won 11 games 2 years in a row and beat both Clemson and Georgia this year.  Put them in any other conference and they come in the top 2 or 3. 

Optimistic Buckeye Pessimist's picture

You could be right, but luck was on their side.  Their bad / off games this year were against UK and Furham? Furman?  Had they played a decent team that week, they get an L.

Read my entire screen name....

Poison nuts's picture

Yeah - this was one that jumped out at me...SC is a damn good team & has been for a few years.

"Death created time to grow the things that it would kill" - Detective Rustin Cohle.

cinserious's picture

South Carolina had some sweet recruits lately and a 'name' coach but they won't be winning any conference champs or NCs anytime soon, sorry.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

DaytonBuckeye4life's picture

I will agree that Alabama is a dominant team you would have to be a fool to believe otherwise and LSU is a very good team most years but not dominant but you can't say that a conference is dominant as a whole just because of two teams either its just absurd.

buckeye76BHop's picture

I see it going either way....the other smaller and somewhat irrelevant teams in the SEC may start to make a push...or not.  I'm going with STEENSN for once and saying...it's not going to happen.  The SEC has been a tough conference for a long time (before 2003-now).  It's always been a more difficult conference to play in as far as beating up on each other due to very good talent in the south.  I'm not seeing it go away anytime soon...as far as a whole (LSU, Bama, FL and even GA will be somewhat relevant).  Let's put it this way...it will NEVER be as bad as the B1G was last year and potentially this year.  tB1G isn't looking good as far as football is concerned.  

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you."

"I love football. I think it is most wonderful game in world and I despise to lose."

Woody Hayes 1913 - 1987 

umsitsonit's picture

In a lot of ways I thoroughly agree with you, but I do question the rationale behind your argument.  Truth:  NCAA Football is cyclical.  All you have to do is look before the SEC domination.  ACC used to be downright dirty, Big Ten has had its moments, and back in the day the Big 12 was what the SEC is now.  However, I there is a lot I disagree with.  I think everyone will agree that, until Saban retires, Alabama will be the pinnacle of SEC and possibly all of NCAAF.  I firmly believe there will be competition when Urban starts to sign and breed the players he recruits.  Florida's recruiting class is top 5 in pretty much every poll, and South Carolina will always be able to land solid recruits.  Not to mention Georgia is one of the heaviest hitting recruiting states in the country. For that reason UGA will always be a force to reckon with.
That leaves one thing that it will come down to: player development.  This is why I think the National Championships for years to come are between OSU and 'Bama.  Saban and Urban show a unique ability not only to just recruit the best, but recruit the best that fit their system and turn them into the player they need them to become.  I think we saw a good bit of that out of Charlie Strong this year with Teddy Bridgewater and a lot of other players on that Louisville squad.  I disagree with you calling out Will Muschamp.  He's shown the ability to develop players on the defensive side of the ball.  Think about all those Texas defenses and remember how good UF's defense was this year (up until the played Louisville).  Steve Spurrier has his fair share of guys who have gotten drafted as well (whether they've been successful or not is another story, but you don't get drafted by being a slouch at the college level)
Also, you said the SEC is going down then referenced UK and Tennessee o_O
So while I do agree with you, I haven't seen much from any other conference as a whole to tell you which one is next.  I'd like to say the B1G, but with the exception of OSU and that team up north, I don't see any other team right now that is built to be a top 10 team over the next 5-10 years.  They SEC's going to be the pinnacle conference for a while with 1-2 teams out of other major conferences making occasional appearances.

CO 303 Buckeye's picture

I agree that CFB is incredibly cyclical, and much of the cycle depends on coaching talent.  Look what happened to Colorado once Barnett was pushed out and freakin Hawkins took over; they are basically a Sun Belt team at this point.  The only elite and I mean like top 5 coach that is outside of the SEC is Urban Meyer, so it really is on OSU to end this tyranny.

Bucksfan's picture

Though I understand the frustration behind what you've written here, virtually every college football beat writer and analyst would completely disagree with you.  I've been wanting and waiting for everything you've said in your first 2 paragraphs over the last 7 years, and reality has actually only gone the opposite way.  SEC football seems to be continually improving.
The playoff might actually make matters worse.  If the SEC gets 2 teams in every year, as many are already predicting, then nothing has changed...you've all but guaranteed an SEC team will be in the title game.
The SEC is not going to be knocked back down to earth until other regions start out-recruiting them.  Nine of the top-20 teams in Scout's recruitment rankings are SEC schools.  Vanderbilt has signed 18x3-star recruits.  Only 3 Big Ten teams, 3 Pac-12 teams, 3 Big XII teams, 1 ACC crack the top-20.  And if you go back through the years, these ratios aren't that different.  The top talent is either staying there or being recruited there.

ohiowhitesnake's picture

Yes! That is where the talent is and if your not recruited by Bama/LSU/UF then stay close to home and try to prove those coaches wrong. I think we crack the shell over the next few years and close the gap...but anything but a championship will not do. 

cinserious's picture

Damn! I didn't think about that aspect of the playoff picture. The SEC probably will get two teams in the top 4 final bcs rankings most years. But in years when Ohio St. isn't winning the championship, why can't notre Dame, Oregon, Stanford,USC, Texas, Oklahoma, Florida St., SOMEBODY step up and win the title? Alabama aside, my whole argument was that the SEC will have to distribute it's wealth a bit more, meaning teams from other regions have a better chance going forward. and whose to say saban doesn't jump ship to the NFL in any given year? Especially if bama gets hemmed up for it's 'impropieties' ? (like that's gonna ever happen)

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

Bucksfan's picture

You'd think that it would just naturally fail.  I can see where you're coming from, and I am tempted to feel the same way.  That these coaches will taper off, and the schools won't be able to replace them with coaches that are as-successful.  Recruits will lose interest, and one after one the programs will die.  Problem is, that's not what's happening.  SEC schools are ready to fire you in 2 years, it doesn't matter what your resume is, and easily replace you because of the $3 million in base salary you're going to get along with the blank check to hire whatever coordinators and assistants you need.  Ohio State's policy, by contrast, was exactly the opposite until they had the chance to hire Urban Meyer.  Gee and Smith were steadfast in their opinion that the SEC was artificially inflating the price of coaching talent.  They're wrong.  The SEC is winning...whatever they're doing, it's equalling wins.  The recruits are not sold on the brand of Auburn or the brand of Arkansas or the brand of Tennessee.  They're sold on the brand of "this is the closest to NFL football you're going to get, and the NFL is watching to see if you're good enough."
So, I hope you're right.  You would think someone who's staring at an Alabama grayshirt vs. a Michigan State starting job that they'd pick Michigan State.  Why aren't they picking Michigan State?  It's probably a lot of things, but that question needs to be answered.

CO 303 Buckeye's picture

I feel like it's the coaching.  A grayshirt for Saban is > starting for Dantonio when his highly touted teams go 5-7 and are flying under the radar by mid-October.  If MSU had a better coach, as in a Sumlin or a Saban (duh) or a Meyer (no sh*t) or a Muschamp, they make the B1G championship game this year.

Bucksfan's picture

P.S. Cinserious - love the icon change!  Bucksfan approved.

cinserious's picture

Ha,ha thanks! They've had Karate Kid on AMC lately and I coudn't help it.
It is unfortunate the uphill battle other conferences face against the SEC with high priced coaches, oversigning, high-level football competition. One factor attribited to the culture down there is that other than NASCAR, the "dirty south" aint got nothin else. So all their resources and money is directed towards H.S. and College football. Atlanta has pro teams and N.O. has pros but the majority of that region doesn't. Unless the B1G gets serious about paying its coaches, we're just going to have to accept it for what it is.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

CO 303 Buckeye's picture

For this dream scenario to come true, the following must happen:
1) Urban and OSU continue to pluck blue chippers out of Florida and Georgia on a yearly basis, and Urban must pull in a top 1-4 recruiting class yearly. Hell, he probably needs to land some Bama and Louisiana kids too just to take away some of that talent from the south.
2) Michigan must keep getting better and finally become a top 10 team again.  Their recruiting is a good start.
3) Clemson and Florida State have to become elite and start challenging their neighboring SEC schools for the top recruits and top rankings.
4) No more ND in MNC or playoff NC games.  They embarrassed the entire northern part of the country.  Maybe, MAYBE in 4 or 5 years when they have real talent, but no sooner.
5) Oklahoma and Texas (with a new goddamm coach) are going to have to really challenge A&M, LSU, Bama, etc.. for the best players in the region.  I fear that with Brown at Texas, A&M will turn into "Big Brother".  Dude needs to retire, and the Longhorns gotta pick up a top tier coach to take over the reigns and find success fast- much like Urban.
6) Oregon and Stanford have to keep California and Arizona locked down, as well as USC (although Kiffin is horrendous as an in-game coach.That team should have been 13-0!). I know that the Pac-12 can produce a top 2 team about every other year or once every three years.
7) OSU has to go 13-0 this year, and Urban had better come up with the best gameplan of his life to beat Alabama and finally end this nearly decade-long streak of SEC champions.
8) Braxton for Heisman.  I kinda like Manziel I have to admit, but the BIG needs a major accolade to boost morale.
9) I know I'm beating a dead horse hear, but the B1G has to hire top level talent coaches.  College football is SOOOO much a coach's game with recruiting and gameplanning and whatnot, so hire the right guy!
10) Urban has to be Urban, bottom line.  I really think OSU is the beacon of hope for northern teams everywhere, at least for the next couple years.

CO 303 Buckeye's picture

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cinserious's picture

@Co303Buckeye: Other than your #9 point, everything else is very realistic and it would be nice to see Muschamp take over for Mack Brown soon and leave UF reeling.
Urban will get a top-4 recruiting class every year but I don't see us penetrating into the deep south parts of Alabama, Mississippi, or LA. We are good and strong with Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Texas, PA, ichigan, Illinois, Jersy/D.C., Virginia/N.C., Tenn/Kentucky.... Between Urban Meyer, his awesome coaching staff and the Ohio ST. brand, we will only get stronger in these states for recruiting and easily pull in top-4 classes annually.

Life's daily struggle is choosing between saying F--ck-it, or soldiering on with your responsibilities.  

Ronrico86's picture

Where are these head to head matchups taking place?  In the south, besides alabama, when was the last time a good SEC team traveled to play a B1G team up north?  The big ten needs to start taking the bowl games seriously, until then we will not compete.  yes, they have alot of talent but so do the state of ohio, pennsylvania, michigan and illinois is getting there too.  I hate to say this because i am a michigan fan first a big ten fan second but Urban Meyer will force these knucklehead B1G Coaches to change their approach in recruiting and open up their recruting pitches.  ADs needs to open up thier checkbooks for better coaches like they did for their basketball teams.