There is so much poor analysis of this in the forums that I feel the need to post an (albeit under the influence) analysis of same.
1. Sparty loses at some point. "At some point" obviously means late in the season, and this loss drops them below both Wisky and OSU in the BCS.
2. Wisky wins out.
3. OSU wins out.
This creates a 3 way tie for the Big Ten Championship. So we win a share of the title. Now, we address the bowl issue.
For the Rose Bowl: the Big Ten has a cascading series of tie breakers in the event of a 3 way tie. Given the make-up of the head to head (or lack thereof) nature of the games between these 3 teams, none of them apply until we get to BCS standings. Now presumably this knocks Sparty out of the picture due to their late loss.
The only question then is whether we can overtake Wisky between now and the end of the season. My understanding from projections is that we should be able to do so. Wisky is currently #10 and we are #11. Wisky's BCS avg. is currently .6584. OSU's is .6356. Both teams have 4 games left. Both teams play scUM, so you throw that game out. The remaining 3 games
Wisky: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern.
OSU: Minnesota, Penn State, Iowa.
So the mystery is whether or not the polls will concur with current projections that OSU's slate is tougher than Wisky's slate to a degree large enough to nudge OSU ahead. I think it will be enough.
Therefore we never get to a question of at large opinions and head to head issues. If the chips fall right, we go to the Rose Bowl. Who do we play?
Well, this is a tougher question, but let's assume for a second that Alabama wins the SEC with 1 loss, and that, as in years past, that is enough to get them into the MNC. Let's also assume, more precariously, that Oregon takes care of business, setting up an intriguing blow out win for Alabama in the MNC. Oregon's inclusion vacates the Pac 10's auto bid to the Rose Bowl, and I believe the Rose Bowl is obligated to take Boise St. sitting at #3, undefeated. Thereafter, hopefully we can end all this smurf turf talk with a 35-7 win against Mr. Moore and his silly-turf loving buddies.