On winning out.

BigRedBuckeye's picture
October 25, 2010 at 11:03p
2 Comments

There is so much poor analysis of this in the forums that I feel the need to post an (albeit under the influence) analysis of same.

Presuppositions:

1. Sparty loses at some point. "At some point" obviously means late in the season, and this loss drops them below both Wisky and OSU in the BCS.

2. Wisky wins out.

3. OSU wins out.

This creates a 3 way tie for the Big Ten Championship. So we win a share of the title. Now, we address the bowl issue.

For the Rose Bowl: the Big Ten has a cascading series of tie breakers in the event of a 3 way tie. Given the make-up of the head to head (or lack thereof) nature of the games between these 3 teams, none of them apply until we get to BCS standings. Now presumably this knocks Sparty out of the picture due to their late loss. 

The only question then is whether we can overtake Wisky between now and the end of the season. My understanding from projections is that we should be able to do so. Wisky is currently #10 and we are #11.  Wisky's BCS avg. is currently .6584. OSU's is .6356. Both teams have 4 games left. Both teams play scUM,  so you throw that game out. The remaining 3 games

Wisky: Purdue, Indiana, Northwestern.

OSU: Minnesota, Penn State, Iowa.

So the mystery is whether or not the polls will concur with current projections that OSU's slate is tougher than Wisky's slate to a degree large enough to nudge OSU ahead. I think it will be enough.

Therefore we never get to a question of at large opinions and head to head issues. If the chips fall right, we go to the Rose Bowl. Who do we play?

Well, this is a tougher question, but let's assume for a second that Alabama wins the SEC with 1 loss, and that, as in years past, that is enough to get them into the MNC. Let's also assume, more precariously, that Oregon takes care of business, setting up an intriguing blow out win for Alabama in the MNC.  Oregon's inclusion vacates the Pac 10's auto bid to the Rose Bowl, and I believe the Rose Bowl is obligated to take Boise St. sitting at #3, undefeated. Thereafter, hopefully we can end all this smurf turf talk with a 35-7 win against Mr. Moore and his silly-turf loving buddies.

Comments

Kurt's picture

I think playing Boise is the worst of all scenarios, there's nothing really to be gained on our end.
I would also hate to see us overtake Wisconsin in the polls provided we both win out, face it they beat us head-to-head.Furthermore playing in the Cap One or Outback wouldn't be the end of the world - really - we'd get to face an SEC opponent. Who would you prefer? Boise or any SEC team?! I'd take the SEC option.

BigRedBuckeye's picture

I think silencing the BCS-buster talk by thrashing  Boise State, on the one hand,

and getting the SEC monkey off our back against a good SEC teams, on the other hand,

are about equal in my book. Losing either game has a similar, nasty down side.

 

And I have no trouble with us jumping Wisky despite the head to head if the result is fortuitous for us. Wisky is a certain type of team and lines up well against, say, an Alabama. However, I think they would get torched by an Oregon and might have trouble with an Auburn. So if we go instead of Wisky and play one of those teams, than WIN. If we go instead of Wisky and play an Alabama (or maybe a Stanford), then maybe not WIN.

And we'll drink to old Ohio, 'Til we wobble in our shoes!