What to Root For: Week 9

BED's picture
October 24, 2013 at 11:48a
29 Comments

Now that the BCS standings have been published, I thought it would be interesting to start a weekly blogpost of what upsets Buckeye fans should be rooting for.  (*Reminder Buckeye Nation, the '02 team started at #6 in the BCS standings, we win and history says we'll be in.  Breathe, people.*)  A couple of points: 

  1. I am working under the assumption that no one-loss team will jump Ohio State.  This is true, regardless of what the morons at the four-letter want to say about the SEC and strength of schedule.  (As an aside, the SEC isn't even really that good, top to bottom, this year.   The upsets we've seen show that.  Bama is good.  Unless B1G teams upsetting other B1G teams is also showing how "dominant" our conference is...)
  2. Our strength of schedule will go up by our opponents' winning.  (Looking at you Cal...)
  3. I will not ever say I or anyone should root for TTUN.  We can just not actively root against them.  If they happen to lose, enjoy the schadenfreunde.
  4. I will post what I think will happen in the game after the description.  Feel free to tell me I'm an idiot and why in the comments.

Without further ado, this week's important match-ups:

  1. Wake Forest at #7 Miami (FL): Noon, ESPN-U.  What we want: Down with ThugU!  Any undefeated is a threat at this point.  Miami really has yet to play anyone really good, save Florida, whose status as “good” is debatable.  Miami enters this game 6-0 against a decent Wake team who has good wins over Maryland and NC State.  Prediction: Miami wins a close one, 24-17.
  2. Tennessee at #1 Alabama: 3:30, CBS.  What we want: Roll damn Vols.  Tennessee travels to Bryant-Denny Stadium on the heels of an upset against the OBC last week, hoping to repeat against Nicky Sabes.  If Rocky Top can play solid football, they have a shot.  The Tide lost their starting Safety to injury, but absolutely blew the doors off of Bert’s Razorbacks last week.  However, Bama is usually good for dropping a stupid game every year, and they may be caught sleeping here.  Prediction:  Alabama loses in a shoot-out, 42-38.
  3. NC State at #2 Florida State: 3:30, ABC or ESPN2.  What we want: A Wolfpack victory.  The ‘Noles are the best team in the ACC, led by the electric freshmen Winston.  They’ve pounded Maryland and Clemson in their last two games.  NC State is at .500 with losses to Clemson, Wake, and Syracuse.  Prediction: FSU in a blowout, 52-10.
  4. #10 Texas Tech at #15 Oklahoma: 3:30, Fox.  What we want: Boomer Sooner.  Though they have the most annoying fight song on the planet (barely edging out So. Cal), we want a Sooner win to knock the Red Raiders out of the title race.  Since Mike Leach was fired (CJK5H), no one should like Tech any more.  Prediction: Since the Big XII plays no defense, Oklahoma in a shoot-out, 52-50.
  5. #12 UCLA at #3 Oregon: 7:00, ESPN.  What we want: Bears > Ducks.  The Pac-12 is probably the best overall conference this season.  UCLA is a good team.  Oregon is great.  With only Stanford and UCLA as their remaining challenges on the schedule, we need the Ducks to drop one here.  Prediction: Oregon in close, low scoring (for the Pac-12) game, 34-31.
  6. #21 South Carolina at #6 Missouri: 7:00, ESPN2.  What we want: A win from the OBC.  Mizzou’s injury at the QB position makes me doubt they can win out.  South Carolina is a decent team that plays good defense for the SEC in a down defensive year.  Prediction: The OBC rights the ship in a close game, 21-17.
  7. #8 Baylor at Kansas: 7:00, ESPN-U.  What we want: Rock Chalk Jayhawk.  An upset by Charlie Weis would help crush the hopes and dreams of the Big XII.  Keep in mind that Kansas led Oklahoma for almost 26 minutes last week, and this could be a interesting game.  Prediction: Baylor wins, mostly due to lack of any defense with a pulse in the Big XII, 55-40.

Other match-ups to watch:

  1. #24 Nebraska at Minnesota: Noon, ESPN.
  2. Northwestern at Iowa: Noon, BTN.
  3. Vanderbilt at #16 Texas A&M: 12:21, ESPN3.
  4. Miami (OH) at Ohio: 2:00, ESPN3.
  5. #9 Clemson at Maryland: 3:30 ESPN.
  6. Michigan State at Illinois: 3:30, ABC or ESPN2.
  7. California at Washington: 11:00, FS1.

Comments

BME_Buckeye's picture

You lost all credibility when you said Bama gives up 42 points, therefore I stop reading this. You need to watch some Tennessee football if you think Bama will give up that many points in a rivalry game. 

Look closely, because the closer you think you are, the less you will actually see.

 

AndyVance's picture

Do you just make it a habit of being negative all the time? I agree that 'Bama ain't gonna cough up that many points to the Vols, but jeez you make a reasonable point of disagreement sound so much like just being a jerk.
To quote Sgt. Hulka, lighten up, Francis.

BED's picture

That was my "crazy, way out there" pick.  Based on gut feeling alone.  The Vols have been playing some good football this month, upsetting SCAR and almost UGA.  Bama has already given up 42 against a not-that-good A&M team, so it can happen.  

I'm not saying I'd gamble on any of those picks, just gut-feelings.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

AndyVance's picture

I'm not saying I'd gamble on any of those picks, just gut-feelings.

You need to start hanging out in opium dens with President Harding - he'll teach you how to let go of those inhibitions and go with your gut at the sportsbook.
Okay, he'll teach you how to snort some high-grade blow and shoot your wad on picks that don't have a snowball's chance in Bolivia of paying out, but it sounds a lot better the first way.

AndyVance's picture

As important are the B1G games you listed in the "other matchups" list - it feels almost imperative that Ohio State play a ranked Sparty, Nebraska or TTUN in the Big Ten title fight, since that's pretty much our only other chance of playing a ranked opponent until January (assuming TTUN doesn't continue its implosion, which is a BIG if).
Your assessment seems pretty spot-on: The Old Ball Coach ought to put down the Tigers pretty handily, and FSU may be the most complete team in the country. No way the Wolfpack upsets them for something like the fifth time in recent memory. And if Tennessee upsets Saban, I'm going to buy a lottery ticket, 'cause magic is happening, baby.

BED's picture

I agree 100%.  A ranked Sparty would be our best option for a title game challenger at this point.  I still think TTUN may lose 4-5 games.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

jeremytwoface's picture

It also would help if the national media would start giving Wisconsin some credit.
 
They are, in all likelihood, the second best B1G team. And if it wasn't for one of the worst officiating jobs I've seen, they would be a one loss team... with that one loss coming to the 4th ranked team on the road by a touchdown.
 
If Wisconsin can keep winning big and get up into the top 15 where they belong, that win from a few weeks ago will look better.
I still don't think that puts them ahead of an unbeaten Bama/Oregon/FSU, but it might help close the gap a bit.

The first man gets the ((((Oyster)))), the second man gets the shell.

Haybucks's picture

Yes!  A Championship matchup with Sparty!

The time to stop talking is when the other person nods his head affirmatively, but says nothing. - Henry S. Haskins

 

BED's picture

This gif nearly knocked my wind out.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

Earle's picture

Nice!!

Italics are for emphasis.

TheChase's picture

Would love to see Bama lose, just don't see it at home against the Vols.  I think Texas Tech, Oregon, and Missouri are in for close games, with hopefully at least 1 out of the 3 going down.

Citrus's picture

This is a nice feature. Well done. 

As for rooting for team to assist our SOS, I don't think it matters. The teams that would jump us if undefeated will still jump us and the teams that won't, won't. A one loss team won't jump us and that is the only thing that matters. 

Hovenaut's picture

Ugh...not liking the home field advantage most of the contenders have. I'm thinking Baylor won't be too intimidated though. 
Definitely will be keeping an eye on UCLA - hoping they can find a way against Oregon. 
Alabama and Florida State should destroy UT and NCSU, though hoping UT can also find a way to give Bama a game and NCSU has had some prior success against the Noles. 
 

BED's picture

As an FYI, next week I'll post what my correct guess % was, and how close my scores were.  So you can all ridicule how bad my choices were.

Also, I'm calling for Ohio State to win over State Penn 34-17.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

Doc's picture

Bed, you must have a pretty high self esteem if you are going to put yourself through the ridicule of us Dubsters.  Good luck, you're going to need it.
Nice addition by the way.

"Say my name."

BED's picture

I can handle the internet tough guys.  I decided to post this because I thought it would be interesting and stir debate on the board.  Since I'm not a writer for the site, thought it would be fun.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

sbentz4's picture

I think Baylor and Alabama will rout their competition, other than that...good picks.

TMac's picture

AGREED:  Buckeyes WIN and Texas Tech & Mizzu Lose their first - Not the most important of the undefeateds to take down but if we can just have at least one of them lose each week.......

Knarcisi's picture

Simple, in terms of probability, UCLA, NC St, and Tenn. 

CC's picture

How is more likely FSU goes down to ncsu than ou beating ttu?

William's picture

Because playing NC State has become a living Hell for Florida State. 

GABuckeye's picture

Kansas sucks and baylor actually plays decent defense... No way kansas scores 40

BED's picture

That's fair.  I struggled with that one the most.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

BuckeyeQ6's picture

The Florida State-Miami situation worries me the most.  Miami replaced Clemson to create another situation where there are two undefeateds with one guaranteed to survive their toughest regular season game left.  This means there is only one realistic shot to knock off the survivor: the ACC title game.  The possible scenarios leave a very good chance the ACC champ remains undefeated:
FSU beats Miami 11/2 (75% likelihood): I really doubt FSU loses elsewhere, so we'd have to rely on Miami to knock of FSU in the ACC title game (maybe 30% likelihood).  This leaves a 52.5% chance FSU goes undefeated and a 22.5% chance both FSU and Miami have a loss.
Miami beats FSU 11/2 (25% likelihood): This is the best case for the Buckeyes because Miami could drop a game in the regular season and it would also have to face FSU again in the ACC title game.  Miami would be favored, but somewhat vulnerable in its ACC schedule, so I'd say there is a 75% Miami stays undefeated here.  If so, we'd need FSU to get revenge or else Miami probably jumps us (70% likelihood).  This means a 5.625% chance Miami goes 13-0 and a 19.375% Miami beats FSU in the regular season and loses elsewhere.
So, there is about a 58% chance an ACC team stays unbeaten, assuming my probability estimates are decent.  If this happens, we'd need both Alabama and Oregon to drop a game or we're shut out of the BCS title.  I know everyone says trust history (and I hope we can!) but I don't like those odds.

BED's picture

FSU still plays Florida, and while the Gators aren't that good, it's a rivalry game, and anything can happen.  Also the U has VT still, a week after the Noles.  If they win against FSU, they could suffer a hangover against the Hokies.

Assuming Miami loses to them, VT can be the Coastal rep in the ACC title game, and could also pose a challenge to FSU.

I feel Bama and Oregon will drop a game each, and actually predicted to a friend we'd play the ACC champ a few weeks ago.  Unless they're all 1 loss, which will probably give us the SEC champ.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Miami has finished the regular season since joining the big boys three times  (that means I'm not counting 1950), 1996 and 1999, they won the NC in 1999 and lost a bowl in 1979 and 1996. They have finished thee regular season with 1 loss 5 times, Miami (FL) beat them in 3 of those games one season they finished with a loss and a tie, Miami beat them and FL tied them. In those other one loss regular seasons ND beat them once and FL beat them the other time. Miami has had  8 - 2 loss seasons. 6 of the 8 involved Miami (FL) or Florida. FSU has a great QB, but he is a Freshman none the less. Last year Johnny Football beat the NC's but lost to FL and LSU. FSU will very likely lose to Miami (FL), Florida or VT or Miami in ACC CG.
  Oregon has the easiest chance of going undefeated. LSU is 7-4 last 11 games. Yes they are 2-4 (1 loss was the NC game after beating them earlier in the season) last 6, but the last game in Tuscaloosa they won and have beaten Alabama 5 of the last 6 there. Alabama also has a game with Auburn with 1 loss. Using Massey's numbers, follow with what you have. But Miami and Florida love spoiling FSU's day.
We'll see how it goes
 
 

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

TennesseeBuckeye's picture

Beat Bama, Roll tide Roll, Round the bowl down the hole roll tide roll!

I may not be able to outsmart too many people, but I can outwork 'em.
Woody Hayes

Haybucks's picture

Your lyrics are better than the video's.  Have Smokey taking a swig and I'm buying it!

The time to stop talking is when the other person nods his head affirmatively, but says nothing. - Henry S. Haskins

 

BED's picture

New Hotness for week 10.

The Ohio State University, College of Arts & Sciences, Class of 2006
The Ohio State University Moritz College of Law, Class of 2009