Eleven Warriors

The first big holiday of 2013 is here as college football's National Singing Day is finally upon us. As is normally the case the last few days and weeks have been a whirlwind of commitments, de-commitments, rumors and guesses but today the rubber meets the road as kids all over the country put pen to paper to fax machine and decide where they will spend the next few years of their young lives. Some stay home and some make their first commute to college via plane ticket. Some even get tattoos and then commit to the rival. The scenarios on NSD are endless, and the 11W recruiting team have already made their predictions for Wednesday's outcome, but the real story today will be told by the kids.

While we all have our eyes directly set on the decisions of James Clark and Vonn Bell, the storilines surrounding Taivon Jacobs and Ezekiel Elliott will insure we're glued to the news stream clear through the afternoon as they both decide if they want to remain close to home or take a one way ticket to Columbus in hopes of one day holding up a crystal football.

The Vonn Bell situation, perhaps the most difficult for anyone to comfortably predict, may have taken a turn for the worse Tuesday night when Tennessee head coach Butch Jones made a cryptic Twitter post of his own...

Ending the night on a positive note, just received some great news a few mins ago! #VFL twitter.com/UTCoachJones/s…

— Butch Jones (@UTCoachJones) February 6, 2013

All is fair in the cut throat world of recruiting and those who follow it from a distance, but there may not be a better one in the game than our own Urban Meyer. His performance on the field over his celebrated career speaks for itself, none of which came without blood, sweat and scheme, but the level of success he's experienced on the field started with the level of talent he brought into his programs from the recruiting trail. Let's take a closer look at Meyer's recent recruiting performance - by the numbers - before he snags his last couple of commits of the 2013 class.

12,411  |  Total miles traveled by Meyer's current twenty-four man 2013 class, including Taivon Jacobs and Ezekiel Elliott, to get from their home towns to the campus of THE Ohio State University. That's exactly 126 miles further than the travel required to get from Lane Avenue to -- Haixi, China.

2,212  |  Distance, in miles, from Riverside, CA to The Ohio State University, a trip that 6'4" 4-Star TE Marcus Baugh will make in order to wear the Scarlet and Gray.

1,625  |  Total combined weight of the defensive linemen Urban Meyer has brought to Columbus since arriving in late 2011, representing a healthy average of 270.8 pounds each.

439  |  Days since TSUN last beat Ohio State in football. Five days earlier it was announced that Urban Meyer had been taken off the broadcast schedule by ESPN for The Game, causing 3.1 million sportsgasms to occur within Buckeye Nation in a 24-hour span.

298  |  Days until Urban Meyer moves his record against TSUN to a tidy 2-0 while holding the title of head football coach at Ohio State.

80  |  Number of commits Meyer has signed from the ESPN 150 since its inception in 2006, including eleven thus far in his current class.

76.25  |  Average height, in inches, of the six defensive ends Meyer has signed to the Buckeyes in his first two classes.

57.75%  |  The percentage of Meyer's 187 commits (108) since his first year in Gainesville who were ranked as 4-Stars by the Rivals recruiting service.

27.27%  |  The percentage of Meyer's 187 commits (51) since his first year in Gainesville who were ranked as 4-Stars by the Rivals recruiting service.

25  |  Number of commits from the state of Ohio that Meyer has signed since arriving in Columbus.

17  |  The number of 4-Stars (Rivals) in Meyer's 2010 class, his last with the Florida Gators, representing the most he's ever signed in one class. Empty cupboard, Gator Nation? Cool.

17  |  Different states represented by the commits of Meyer's first two recruiting classes for the Buckeyes.

12  |  Different states represented by the current commits to Ohio State's class of 2013.

11.76%  |  The percentage of Meyer's 187 commits (22) since his first year in Gainesville who were ranked as 5-Stars by the Rivals recruiting service.

11  |  Number of recruits Meyer has flipped to Ohio State who were once committed to another program, including seven in his first three months in Columbus and four more in his current class.

3.21%  |  The percentage of Meyer's 187 commits (6) since his first year in Gainesville who were ranked as 2-Stars by the Rivals recruiting service, three of which were kickers including Johnny Townsend in this year's class.

0  |  The total number of career intercollegiate losses Urban Meyer's class of 2012 has recorded since officially joining the program at this time last year.

Plenty of these can and will change as signatures come rolling in on Wednesday, and I can't see making any updates to it, but this should get you started for what will undoubtedly be a day of celebration around Buckeye Nation. Need a glimpse of the current roster slots as it stands now? Alex built just that a few weeks ago and has updated it as news has came in ever since, revised through Monday night's commitment of Dontre Wilson.

Enjoy the day, guys and gals. It should be an exciting one.

Recap by Curt Heinrichs

Last night, the #5 ranked Ohio State Buckeye wrestling team (ranking according to January 29th NWCA/USA Today Coaches Poll) took their youthful show on the road to Oak Harbor High School to lock horns with #6 Illinois. While it was a home match on the schedule, Oak Harbor HS was not the familiar confines of St. John arena to most of the Buckeyes. This wasn’t the case for all of the Buckeyes as redshirt senior CJ Magrum and redshirt sophomore Drew Stone wrestled their high school matches on the same mat that last night’s dual took place. It has been a recent tradition that Ohio State has wrestled one home match outside of Columbus, often at the high school of one of the upperclassmen on the team.

The match was announced as a sell-out and the gym was packed with enthusiastic Buckeye wrestling fans young and old. An estimated 2,200 fans were in attendance, and though the match took place over 2 hours away from Columbus, the crowd looked and sounded like a crowd from the (614) area code, complete with Buckeye superfan and fixture Big Nut in the front row.

As a hat tip to the hometown wrestlers, the action kicked off with an exhibition match between a pair of Buckeyes with hometown favorite Drew Stone took on Josh Whitt, a graduate of nearby Oregon Clay High School (outside of Toledo). Stone scored first with a takedown, but ultimately fell by a score of 6-4.

The match officially started at 125 lbs with a pair of previous All Americans butting heads. Nikko Triggas (ranked #12 in the most recent Intermat rankings) of the Buckeyes matched up against Jesse Delgado (#5 Intermat). Triggas, a pinning machine with experience on a international level in Greco Roman wrestling, wasn’t able to overcome a rough first period and fell to the higher-ranked Delgado. Delgado utilized a pair of 1st period takedowns and a set of 3 backpoints to storm out to a 7-1 lead after the first 3 minutes. With Triggas unable to turn Delgado in the 3rd period, Delgado was awarded an additional point at the conclusion of the bout thanks to having over a minute of riding time advantage and he won by a score of 8-1, giving the Illini a 3-0 lead to start the dual.

Magrum and Stone weren’t the only locals to be making a homecoming to the northwest corner of Ohio. Defending NCAA champion Logan Stieber (along with brother Hunter Stieber and teammate Cam Tessari) hails from nearby Monroeville, Ohio, which is only about a 30 minute drive from Oak Harbor, so a large contingency of Monroeville fans made the short trip to Oak Harbor to watch the Logan’s return to the lineup. The elder Stieber had been out of the Buckeyes lineup for a number of weeks due to a minor injury, but was back at full-strength, putting his undefeated season record and #1 ranking on the line against Illinois #8 ranked (Intermat) Daryl Thomas. Stieber scored a quick takedown and wasted little time in locking up an armbar and half nelson and was able to pin Thomas in just 2:04 of the first period. The quick pin gave the Buckeyes a 6-3 advantage, a lead that they wouldn’t relinquish for the rest of the evening.

Following up older brother Logan, Hunter Stieber took the mat boasting an undefeated record and #2 ranking against unranked Stephen Rodrigues. Rodrigues is filling in for returning All-American BJ Futrell, who’s out nursing an injury. Futrell is ranked #3 in the Intermat rankings, so a potential matchup between him and #2 ranked Stieber and would have been the signature match of the duel and a possible preview for the Big Ten Championships. Stieber took charge of the match from the opening whistle and outscored his opponent 7-1 in the opening frame. When the final horn sounded, Stieber had amassed a grand total of 3:05 of riding time en route to a 10-2 major decision, extending the OSU lead to 10-3.

The 3rd consecutive Monroeville graduate took the mat next when returning All-American Cam Tessari (#19 Intermat) took on Caleb Ervin. The 1st period saw the best scramble of the evening, but it ended with a potentially dangerous call from the referee when Tessari torqued the knee of Ervin just a bit too far for the referee’s liking. In the 2nd period, Tessari exploded up from the bottom and scored a reversal and 3 nearfall points while amassing 1:35 of riding time. Ervin chose to go down in the 3rd, but was unable to get out from the bottom as Tessari imposed his will on the Illini wrestler with some tough riding on top. Tessari earned the decision by a score of 6-1 and improved his record to 12-6 on the season. The additional 3 team points made the score 13-3 in favor of the Buckeyes.

At 157 lbs, Westerville native Josh Demas put his quickness on display as the 18th ranked wrestler (Intermat) took on Matt Nora. Demas changed levels at will throughout the match and was able to score 4 takedowns throughout the match with a variety of duckunders and double-legs. With an escape and an additional point for riding time, Demas moved the team score to 16-3 with a 10-3 decision of his own.

After a short halftime intermission which saw members of the Oak Harbor youth wrestling program wrestling on the mat, St. Edward graduate Mark Martin took on #8 ranked Conrad Polz of Illinois. The 1st period was scoreless and Polz was able to escape from the bottom in the 2nd. In the 3rd period, OSU’s Martin was unable to escape and Polz earned a 2-0 decision with a 1 point bonus for riding time. The Illini victory cut the team deficit to 16-6.

With the #2 H. Stieber vs #3 Futrell match not happening, the bout at 174 became the marquee matchup as #7 Nick Heflin of the Buckeyes took on #8 Jordan Blanton of the Fighting Illini. Last year, both Heflin and Blanton were All-Americans, placing at the NCAA tournament 5th and 4th respectively. At the time of publication, 8 of the top 10 ranked wrestlers (according to Intermat) in this weight class were from Big Ten schools, making each conference match-up vital for potential seeding at the Big Ten Tournament in a few weeks. After trading escapes in the 2nd and 3rd periods from referee’s position, the match (as so many of Heflin’s tend to do) went to a 1 minute overtime period. Heflin capitalized on the opportunity and scored a takedown in the overtime period, sealing the deal. The usually even-keeled Heflin was fired up with the 3-1 victory and implored to crowd to make some noise. Heflin’s decision victory extended the Buckeyes’ lead to 19-6.

At 184 lbs, 3 time NCAA tournament qualifier and Oak Harbor graduate CJ Magrum took the mat to face Illinois’ #20 ranked Tony Dallago. The Oak Harbor community gave Magrum a warm welcome in the form of a standing ovation as he took the mat. Magrum hasn’t competed much this year for the Buckeyes as he’d had some difficulty beating out teammate Kenny Courts for the 184 lb slot, but Magrum was able to recapture the position in time for this homecoming match. Magrum was nearly able to score a takedown in the first period, but was unable to finish before the end of the period. Dallago escaped from the bottom in the 2nd and was able to control Magrum for the duration of the 3rd period. The pro-Magrum crowd wanted a number of stalling calls on Dallago throughout the course of the 3rd period as Dallago was unable to return Magrum to the mat a number of times when he stood up off of the whistle. Eventually, Magrum was awarded 1 point for 2 stalling calls against Dallago, but Dallago had amassed nearly 2 minutes of riding time and earned a 2-1 decision to cut the Buckeye lead to 19-9 in the team score.

At 197 lbs, Kenny Courts (who was recently ranked #15 at 184 lbs by Intermat) filled in for teammate Andrew Campolattano against defending Big Ten Tournament Champion and #13 ranked Mario Gonzalez. If watching Courts in action has taught fans anything, it’s to make sure you are in your seat and paying attention when Kenny wrestles, or you might miss a flurry of scoring. Courts didn’t disappoint with a quick takedown and a pair of 3 point nearfalls utilizing tilts. Just 60 seconds into the match, Courts had gotten out to a lead of 8-0 on his larger opponent. At the end of the 1st period, Courts led 10-4, but was unable to tack on any more takedowns to achieve a major decision. It appeared that Courts was struggling to move the bigger Gonzalez, but was able to cling to a 13-9 decision, clinching the dual match for the Buckeyes with a score of 22-9.
At Heavyweight, scrappy #12 ranked Peter Capone locked horns with Chris Lopez. After a scoreless 1st period, Capone was able to score an escape with a nice Granby roll seconds into the 2nd period. The Buckeye was able to ride out his opponent in the 3rd period and defeated Lopez by the score of 2-0 with the riding time bonus point added on. With the victory, Capone put a cap on the dual with a final score of 25-9.

The youthful Buckeyes, who only trotted out 4 upperclassmen in the dual, were able to win 7 of the 10 matches and were lead by bonus points from each of the Stieber brothers. The Buckeyes will conclude their regular season next weekend when they hit the road to take on Michigan on Friday night (televised at 6:00 ET on Big Ten Network). The Buckeyes will then return to the friendly confines of St. John Arena to take on formerly #1 ranked Penn State (formerly because they were knocked off by #3 Iowa around the same time the Buckeyes were dispensing of Illinois) on Sunday at 4 PM.

i know this is does not mean vonn bell is a lock to Ohio State, but this is definately a big confidence boost. Mike Farrell is the best recruiting insider i have seen. I rarely see him miss on a recruit prediction. This has got to mean something, right? Bell i believe is a cant-miss, do-everything-possible to get. With mike being somebody i trust. i do belive bell will announce for ohio state on NSD. i know its just a guess, but rivalsmike is the godfather of recruiting and a guy who has a history of being correct.

Great Sign for the buckeyes with Bell.

He also predicted wilson to oregon, which is obviously not good for buckeyenation. Wilson taking an official to texas esssentially means nothing. i believe he wants an offense that suits him perfectly, and Texas just is not on the same level with the Ohio State and oregon systems.

He predicts Ezekial Elliot to Ohio State as well. i think there will be some drama, but ohio state i think will land zeke. but, it is enough to have me scared on this.

James Clark, is not in the rivals250 so no prediction. but, i dont believe we will get him. i dont think we have a good enough relationship with him. He is a great wide reciever. i think he is vaslty under-rated, but unfortunately we will not see him scarlet and gray.

Cameron Hunt he predicts Oregon. We have no shot with hunt. He has eliminated ohio state.

Due to the recent addition of my alma mater to the Big Ten, and since I am a life long Ohio State fan, I thought I would share my knowledge of Rutgers, and some personal views on its football program.  Hopfully this will enlighten some B1G fans unfamiliar with Rutgers.  Even better would be if I could help change some people's perceptions of one of the Big Ten's newest members, and at the very least offer you something you may not know about Rutgers University.

Background:

As long as I can remember I have been an Ohio State fan, and that is mostly due to my mom growing up in Ohio and my dad attending OSU.  I am still a die hard OSU fan, but I also am now an adult and have now lived in New Jersey for 20 years.  I graduated from Rutgers in 2011, and I am pretty well versed on their football program and everything that goes along with its tradition as the birth place of college football.  In case you are not familiar with college football history, I will explain the 'birth place' reference.  Princeton and Rutgers played the first intercollegiate football game in 1869 when the country was still recovering from the civil war and Princeton was stilled known as the College of New Jersey.  Now I will try not to bore any of you with more fun facts you can find on Wikipedia.  Ultimately college football has become a question of, 'what have you done for me lately?'.  Thus I will try to avoid boring you with anymore history lessons about Rutgers.  I just wanted to point out that Rutgers offers the Big Ten another feather to add to its cap with a history already full of rich football tradition.

2012-2013 Season:

Currently Rutgers is coming off a Big East title and a 9-3 regular season that began 7-0 with a win over an SEC team in Arkansas (that win looked a lot better in the early weeks of the 2012 season).  Their season changed once they lost to a stubborn Kent State team which ended their rapid clime up the college football polls.  They still managed to finish the season with a Big East conference championship.  However, it was a season that finished on a low note with losses over Pitt and Louisville, which forced them to share their Big East title with Cincinnati and Louisville.

2013 Russell Athletic Bowl:

Due to the disappointing loss to Louisville in their final game of the season, Rutgers denied itself a chance to play in the Orange Bowl, which would have marked their first appearance ever in a BCS bowl.  The tie breaker went to Louisville due to their victory over Rutgers.  Rutgers then went on to lose their Bowl game 13-10 in OT to a stubborn Virginia Tech team. Rutgers had a 7-3 lead going into the fourth quarter, but Virginia Tech fought back to tie the game and then went on to win it in over time.

Looking back at their 2012-2013 season Rutgers is probably satisfied with what their first year head coach was able to accomplish, especially with no previous head coaching experience and a very young group of players.  They will lose two players who decided to forgo their senior and redshirt junior seasons respectively, by entering the NFL draft.  Both losses will hurt, especially since one of those players is their star Running Back Jawan Jamison (who reminds many Rutgers fans of a former Rutgers Scarlet Knight, who is getting ready to play in the Super Bowl this weekend, Ray Rice).

First year head coach Kyle Flood set a Rutgers record after starting his tenure 7-0.  In February 2012 Flood was promoted after long time Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano decided to leave for a NFL job as the new head coach of the Tampa Bay Buc's.  Flood only had two days before national signing day in 2012 to keep his class together, and he largely succeeded in his effort to hold the recruiting class together.  He even was able to add another top offensive lineman to finish a class that many people regard as Rutgers' best recruiting class in history.

Recruiting History and Outlook:

Rutgers' rapid improvement under Greg Schiano and now Kyle Flood is due in large part to their stronger ability to keep a lot of the North Jersey and specifically Bergen County recruits in state.  Bergen Catholic and especially Don Bosco Prep are almost always ranked in the top 25 nationally, and often produce the best HS football talent the state has to offer.  Rutgers also recruits South Florida rather well due to Greg Schiano's ties he developed as Miami's Defensive Coordinator in 1999 and 2000.  He coached former NFL defensive player of the year, safety Ed Reed (Ravens), and also super bowl champion Jonathan Vilma (Saints) during his brief tenure at Miami.  After Schiano's departure for the NFL, Rutgers have not missed a beat in recruiting, and are still able to benefit from the recruiting contacts Rutgers' assistant coaches developed in Florida during the Schiano era.  They also have a number of their offensive coaches who joined Rutgers after the 2011-2012 season from Pitt.  Besides these coaches being use to the grind of major college football recruiting, they also brought experience in recruiting Western PA, Maryland, and the Midwest from their previous post at Pitt.  The experiences at Pitt will probably be valuable to Rutgers now that they are joining the Big Ten.

The table below is just a glimpse at how Rutgers have recruited in comparison to the rest of the nation and the Big Ten over the last 5 years according to Rivals.com.  I compared Rivals' data to the available ESPN.com class rankings along with 247, and I decided that since all the sites rankings are relatively similar that I would just offer the Rivals data, and if people wish to compare the data more closely they can take a look at the other sites on their own.

Rivals.com rankings from the last 5 complete recruiting classes

Year    Avg stars    Nat. Ranking        Rank within B1G     Total Commits
2012     3.26                24                          3                              19
2011     2.96                32                          6                              24
2010     2.75                64                          9                              24
2009     3.00                38                          8                              23 
2008     2.65                46                          8                              20

Conclusions:

The recruiting data are obviously not exactly jaw dropping, but if they were bringing in top 10 classes, I think it would be more worrying relative to how that talent is translating to the field.  Rutgers is not Alabama or Florida, but all the available evidence from their latest results and recruiting information (with the exception being 2010) seems to indicate Rutgers will be able to compete in the Big Ten.  They are ranked in the top half of the Big Ten or close to it by recruiting services almost every year since they started their rapid improvement as a program 5-8 years ago, and the results are starting to show on the field on a consistent basis.  They also have proven they can win their bowl games.  Rutgers had a 5 game winning streak in bowls, which was the longest active streak in the nation before their loss to Virginia Tech this past year.

If I had to compare Rutgers' football program to a current Big Ten program I would have to say Michigan State is very close in their yearly recruiting rankings and also relative to their improved play on the field even if both programs have not yet achieved a level of yearly success in the wins loss column.  There will probably be a short adjustment period when Rutgers enter Big Ten play at the start of the 2014-2015 season, but I think the evidence indicates that they are not the worthless addition that many pundits and fans within the Big Ten have made them out to be. 

In fact ESPN.com formulated a list of schools which should or could become college football powers very rapidly (within 2 years).  Rutgers was amongst ESPN's top 5 when they looked at all the programs currently in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS), and asked experts what schools are best positioned to become consistent contenders for BCS bowls and conference championships in the next few years.  They based their rankings off their conversations with 'experts', who were often members of other staffs or administrations at big schools around the country that are familiar with the programs in question.  The people ESPN talked to almost all mentioned Rutgers' massive enrollment (amongst the largest in the country), their proximity to talent rich recruiting areas along with television exposure, and the recently upgraded facilities that are on par with any school in the country.  Due to these reasons there is a belief that Rutgers is considered to be a 'sleeping giant' amongst many college football insiders.

Outlook in the Big Ten:

Ultimately I would predict that Rutgers is an 8-4 team with at least a .500 record when they join the Big Ten in 2014.  As I have pointed out, Rutgers has everything they need to become a football power, and it will be exciting to see how they make the transition to the Big Ten.  Rutgers' true identity is found on the defensive side of the ball, and it is certainly a strength for them usually, and this is probably due to their focus on recruiting great athletes with the speed to compete against almost anyone in the country.  On offense they tend to rely on power running and consistent if not prolific passing on the offensive side of the ball.  The foundation of their program is on recruiting very good defensive and offensive linemen, because like most programs they feel success often starts in the trenches.  Rutgers would seem to project very well as a member of the Big Ten conference and I recommend keeping an open mind to the newest member.

I hope this description of Rutgers' football program (through the eyes of a die hard OSU fan and Rutgers alum) will have helped to broaden people's knowledge and hopefully offer a reason for B1G fans to show some interest in Rutgers.  I know people who are 30 years or older probably still have an image of Rutgers that is based off of their reputation in the 1990s, which was essentially that they were the worst team in college football.  Due to the common image many people have of Rutgers has caused 'us' as Big Ten fans to look at Rutgers as nothing more than an addition to the Big Ten's geographic footprint in the country's largest television market.  Thinking of Rutgers in such a narrow manner has caused people to forget that Rutgers is no longer a team that wins one game a year and that they will bring a good program to the conference, and have the potential to become one of the great programs if they continue to improve.  Ultimately I think people will be pleasantly surprised (maybe angered) by the quality Rutgers will add to Big Ten football.  According to most reports around Rutgers back in November, they wanted assurances from the Big Ten conference that they would be in the same division as Ohio State.  This is likely because Rutgers wants to open up the Ohio area for recruiting and for their own internal financial reasons.  Around NJ it is widely believed that the Big Ten did assure Rutgers they would be in OSU's division, but only time will tell if that is the case. Personally I am happy they are joining the Big Ten and I hope they end up in the same division as OSU, because that will allow me to get great tickets to OSU at Rutgers games.

Visiting Rutgers in the future? 
For future reference New Brunswick, which is the town where Rutgers' main campus is located, is a great place to come watch a football game in my opinion.  If any Buckeye fans are thinking about making the trip sometime for an OSU game here, I would say it is worth the 9 hour drive across PA.  There are plenty of nice restaurants and bars around campus, as well as great tail gating before, during and after games.  It is also a great college town if you are interested in experiencing the Rutgers' nightlife.  If you come to New Brunswick do not leave without visiting the world famous Grease trucks on College Ave.

The hours are starting to seem like days themselves at this point.  It's every college football fans version of Christmas, their birthday, and their wedding anniversary (for those of us that are tied down) all rolled into one.  National Signing Day is the time when every college football fan (especially fans of a program that matters) are glued to their computer screens just waiting for the confirmation that a player has selected the school they root for to play his college ball. 

Really for an obsessed football fan it's like watching Dick Clark on New Year's eve while the ominous ball descends in the background.  You count the names on the list as they multiply, but you also scratch off names on the list of potential signees as they make their choice for schools that you don't root for.  It's one of the most organized forms of chaos imaginable. 

The image of Coach Meyer sitting at his desk, sweat beading up on his wrinkled forehead, fingers intwined, as he chews his bottom lip in anticipation of the fax machine lighting up with news is one we can only imagine as fans.  Seasons prior (no pun intended) to the last two had seen little excitement on signing day.  It always seemed as though Tress had his guys he wanted locked up, and on signing day he just sat back and let things happen.  Maybe it's not the case, maybe it's just the perception that Urban Meyer is the John Rambo of college recruiting, and he hits the recruiting road hard from the moment he offers a player, until the moment that player signs and pushes send on the fax machine.  Either way the buzz surrounding signing day has never been as electric as it is this year (at least in this writer's memory), as come Wednesday of next week there will be a number of players that TOSU fans will be waiting to hear about on pins and needles.

The big fish in our collective "buckeye pond" is no secret, it's Georgia safety Von Bell.  Right now he's the prettiest girl at the dance so to speak, and Tennessee, Alabama, and Ohio State all want to do the foxtrot like they never have before.  Not since the decision day of Terrelle Pryor has the environment surrounding a player been this closely scrutinized.  Of course the difference is, Von Bell is choosing not to be a diva about his recruitment, and he intends on announcing when he said he would, and I would imagine he would get the Ohio State moniker correctly and not put a feeling of absolute sickness in the collective guts of Buckeye Nation (see Terrelle Pryor annoucing "The University of Ohio State" which we all know doesn't exist).  The truth is, as much as we may all feel tortured by waiting on Bell's decision, he has earned this time, and we will wait patiently, or impatiently, either way to hear him announce his choice. 

Next in line we're talking about Dontre Wilson, an explosive, and athletic running back from Texas who is currently commited to an Oregon program that is without it's Admiral.  As we all know Chip Kelly left the college ranks (in a bit of a cloud of controversy as sanctions for recruiting loom over Oregon) to pursue a job with the Philadelphia Eagles.  When Kelly took off, Wilson reopened his recruitment, and sent a shockwave of excitement into Buckeye nation when he had earlier proclaimed that if he didn't go to Oregon, Ohio State would be his second choice.  I think the overall impression of most of us is that Ohio State has a great shot to land Wilson as he is very much excited about the spread offense that Urban Meyer commands.

Those are the highlights, and I guess next we talk about the low lights, and what is more distressing for Buckey fans than anything else really.  The idea that someone would want to commit to play at TOSU, but then months later rescend his commitment is almost like treason.  In truth we as fans have no reason to hold resentment towards these kids if they think they would be better suited some where other than Columbus (a thought I can't quite wrap my head around) but the truth is it happens, and in the case of EZE it may be more of a reality than most of us are prepared to bear.  To be fair to EZE he hasn't decommited, and all he did was take a visit to his home state school (Mizzou), but none of that knowledge helps Buckeye fans feel better about the situation.  It's going to be a waiting game with EZE as he has decided to go into hiding until NSD, but please, no one do anything stupid, or drink themselves into a daze over this one.  We just have to remain calm and hope for Ezekial Elliott.

So what does it all mean my fellow Buckeye fans?  What's the overall pulse and reaction to all of the ebs and flows of recruiting, and the chaos of NSD?  The truth is, there is none, and for anyone other than a college football fan, it's just another day.  My advice is to do as I do, swallow a fistful of tums, run anti-virus before the chaos starts so that you have optimal speed on your computer, and pray to the football gods for a good return on all of our hope for a successful naitonal signing day.

Most people seem to think that more people equals more talent.  That is to say that talent is random.  They say if there are more people in the south than in the north then there will be more talented players to choose from in the south.  This logic dictates that not only will more people produce more overall talent, they will win more football games.

I'd like to take this time to disagree... Here's why.

Let's take hockey for example.  Most hockey players are Canadian (70%).  A bit strange eh when you consider most hockey teams are in the US.  This seemingly goes against our traditional thought that more people equals more overall talent.  But you could also argue that Canadians like hockey much more than Americans, which is........ very true.  I found that 80% of Canadians watch hockey once a week.  Wait, what? Are you kidding me?  They must all be eating pucks for breakfast.  Impressive.  If only we had that much fervor for college football.

On the flip side Americans have a much lower attention span as pro football is considered our favorite sport at only 36%.  This is followed by baseball, college football, auto racing and somewhere down the line is hockey at 5%.  Ok, so it's not our first or fifth choice but we watch the hell out of it because 23 of the 30 NHL teams are in the US. 

But how many people are actually playing hockey?  If we look at the actual pool of people playing the game (Under 18, youth leagues, ect..) we get a much clearer picture of what's going on.  USA Hockey the governing body in the US states that in 2009-10, 474,592 people were registered as players.  Compare this to Hockey Canada (governing body) 2009-10 stats of 577,077 people registered playing hockey.  These statistics show Canada actually only has 18% or roughly 100,000 more people playing hockey.  So how the hell can Canada have 70% of NHL players and the US only 14%!?! 

If the population theory was true than there would be a much similar number of Canadians to Americans in the NHL.  So what is going on here?  For one possible hypothesis lets take a look at the book Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.  He writes "the biggest misconception about success is that we do it solely on our smarts, ambition, hustle and hard work."  Gladwell looks at many talented people such as Bill Gates, The Beatles, and our Canadian hockey players. But more importantly how they got to be so talented.

His conclusions assert that success depends on the selection process used to identify talent just as much as it does on the athletes' natural abilities.  In the case of the Canadian hockey players psychologist Roger Barnsley noticed that there were a disproportionate amount of star players with birthdays in January, February, and March. The reason is, kids born on January 1st play in the same league as those born on December 31st.  Because kids born earlier in the year are larger, older, and more mature than the younger competitors they are often singled out as better athletes. This leads to more coaching and a higher likelihood of being chosen for all-star games and starting positions. This phenomenon dubbed "accumulative advantage" by Gladwell.  BTW Wayne Gretzky's birthday....Jan.26th.

Accumulative advantage is interesting because it actually explains why some kids rise to the top and others don't.  Gladwell also talks about the Czech Republic having a similar system with the same results. (Jaromir Jagr Feb. 15th) In fact a vast majority of Canadian and Czeck NHL players have birthdays in the first three months of the year.  This anomaly also occurs in American baseball and in European soccer with very similar results.

Another chink in the population theory comes from the top.  Coaching.  I have a B1G problem with the B1G.  For a conference on the whole who is more financially solid than most fortune 500 companies, they act more like dime store bargain shoppers tripping over dollars to get to pennies.  A coach with the right talent can make all the difference in the victory column.  Just ask first year coach Luke Fickell who lost 6 games by a touchdown or less in 2011.  A year later UFM wins 6 games by, that's right, a touchdown or less.  Now, lets take a look at what our B1G conference pays its top men in relation to the rest of the country.

4. Urban Meyer, Ohio State: $4.3 million
6. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: $3.835 million
12. Brady Hoke, Michigan: $3.046 million
17. Bo Pelini, Nebraska: $2.875 million
18. Bret Bielema, Wisconsin: $2.64 million
38. Bill O'Brien, Penn State: $2.3 million
47. Mark Dantonio, Michigan State: $1.934 million
54. Tim Beckman, Illinois: $1.6 million
72. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: $1.3 million
72. Kevin Wilson, Indiana: $1.3 million
72. Jerry Kill, Minnesota: $1.3 million
65. Danny Hope, Purdue: $970,000

22.Gary Anderson  Wisconsin  $2.7 million

67. Darrell Hazell Purdue $1.5 million

And now the SEC coaches.

1.Saban - $5.5M
5.Miles - $4M
Chizik - $3.6M
8.Spurrier - $3.6M
15.Richt - $3M
19.Pinkel - $2.8M
21.Franklin - $2.7M
24.Mullen - $2.6M
28.Mushamp - $2.5M
28.Sumlin - $2.5M
Dooley - $2M
Phillips - $1.9M
62.Freeze - $1.6M
Smith - $0.9M

Bret Bielema $3.2M

The NCAA average head coach's salary is 1.64M.  The SEC has ZERO coaches below that pay grade.  Now if I was a top coach where would I want to go?.....it doesn't take long to figure out that top down dollars equal championships.  And the B1G?  I don't know how Kirk Ferentz wins the Iowa lottery each year but aside from that, Delany must need a new off shore bank account because we pay our coaches like a the MAC.

Bret Bielema now gets paid more than the head coach of Michigan! (whoever that is?) Yes, Michigan the winningest program in the history of college football.  In fact with bonuses, 6 SEC coaches earned more than Michigan's head coach this year.  Oh and what do you know?  An SEC team beat Michigan this year to help them finish a mediocre 8-5.

As for the population myth, don't believe the hype.  Maybe the south gets to practice more hours because of better weather, maybe the advantage of getting more games in better weather has an impact, maybe they are just getting lucky?  But if we want to see the B1G as a whole return to national contention we must start with getting the best coaches, and that means paying them.  Until then.

2013 Rossvile (GA) Ridgeland safety Vonn Bell has been one of Ohio States' top targets for quite some time. Bell has taken his time with the recruiting process. However, it's about to come to an end as he will be announcing his college decision on National Signing Day (02/06/2013) at 10 AM EST on ESPN. I caught up with Ridgeland head coach, Mark Mariakis tonight to get the details on Vonn's upcoming decision:

• Alabama visit: "The Alabama trip went well. He was down there for their Championship parade on the Saturday. He also got to go to Coach Saban's house for a dinner and maybe a breakfast. He had a really good talk with Coach Saban."
• Tennessee visit: "In Vonn's words, he said, "It was amazing." The family was pleased to see a big difference in the program from the last time they were there. They were also pleasantly surprised by the new environment on campus."
• Ohio State/Urban: "He has had a good relationship with Coach Meyer from day one. Ohio State is obviously a great football program, with great tradition, but the persistency Coach Meyer and Coach Withers have shown toward Vonn has been incredible."
• Potential Vandy visit/Recruiting coming to an end: "I think it's a possibility, but I don't think he ends up going down this weekend. The family is cutting off recruiting after Thursday and will not have contact with any colleges leading up to the decision. They're going to discuss things as a family Friday, then I will meet with the family Saturday, hopefully in the morning, to see if he's ready to make a decision."
• Coaching visits: "I know Ohio State (Coach Withers), is coming Thursday morning. I don't know about the other two though. I called the schools today to tell them the family is shutting things down after Thursday."
• No decision in mind: "I think it's going to be the toughest decision hes made in his life to this point. He's a relationships kid. He's really close with all of the coaches involved. It was hard for him in narrow things down to twelve and even harder for him to cut it to three. It will be tough for him to tell the other two schools no because he's just so close with coaches from all three schools. He's told me he could be happy at any three of the schools. It's going to come down to one really small factor for him and I don't know what that will be."
• Factors: "The relationships with the coaches is very important. In addition to that, education is an important part of the puzzle. Early playing time will also be important for Vonn.

I could see Bell going to any of his three finalists: Alabama, Ohio State, and Tennessee. I'll stick with my prediction of Bama for now, but I may change it to the Bucks or Vols before signing day. One thing I definitely do know: No decision has been made.

Greetings and salutations fellow 11dubbers. I'm an Art Director for the NFL's Digital Media department, and will be walking amongst all the players tomorrow for Media Day. I thought I'd alert the 11dub nation since, as we all know, no fewer than 4 former Buckeyes(Larry Grant, Alex Boone, Teddy Ginn and Donte Whitner) will be there and available for me to talk to, ask questions, pose for photographs, etc. I am not sure as to how much time or to what level I’ll have access to our favorite ex-Buckeyes, but this may be my only shot ever to do this.

Of course I am planning on getting some pictures taken with the aforementioned players holding up a sign that will mention, by name, my old best friend and college roommate who, as it happens, is a lifelong 49er and unfortunately, Michigan fan, and telling them they still suck.

My question to you all is A) what should the sign say (his name is Robert Williams), and B) Is there anything else I should ask/pictures-taken etc for all of 11 Warrior nation?
An early possibility:

“Scarlet and gray then, Scarlet and Gold now, it doesn’t matter Robert Williams, Michigan still sucks”

Thanks for the feedback, and as always, Go Bucks!

It's not very often that a recruiting service reviews and reranks recruits, however eSPIN has gotten some good perspective on themselves with this article.  They also go over the top 2009 players and conclude that more times than not, top players fail in their rankings because of off the field issues rather than their lack of talent.  You can make up your own mind on that.

Looking at ourselves, you could almost turn our 2009 class upside down.  Of our 7 top ESPN 150 recruits 5 of them turned out to be busts for one reason or another. 

Jaamal Berry
Video | Scouts Report
#3 RB Miami, FL
Miami Palmetto High School 5'11'' 185  84
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

Dorian Bell
Video | Scouts Report

#4 OLB Monroeville, PA
Gateway Senior High School 6'0'' 220  83
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

C.J. Barnett
Video | Scouts Report
#10 CB Clayton, OH
Northmont Senior High School 6'1'' 175  82
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

Jamie Wood
Video | Scouts Report

#12 S Pickerington, OH
Pickerington Central High School 6'2'' 185  81
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

Melvin Fellows
Video | Scouts Report
#10 DE Garfield Heights, OH
Garfield Heights High School 6'4'' 245  81
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

Jack Mewhort
Video | Scouts Report

#2 OC Toledo, OH
Saint John's High School 6'6'' 285  81
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

Duron Carter
Video | Scouts Report

#18 WR Fort Lauderdale, FL
Saint Thomas Aquinas School 6'3'' 183  81
OHIO STATE
SIGNED

You could easily argue that the lower 7 of Simon, Hyde, Brown,(all B1G selections) coupled with starters Lindsley, Marcus Hall, Jordan Hall, plus Zack Boren, Reid Fragel, and back up Kenny G outweighed the 7 eSPIN 150 stars.  Not so much of an argument there.  But lets look at how past the past classes stack up.

The 2010 class had 4 eSPIN 150's, the 2011 had 7, the 2012 had 5 but the 2013 class has 10....and counting.  Tressel averaged 5 top 150 players from 2010-2012, Meyer has already doubled that in his first full year of recruiting.  (And oh by the way,  Meyer brought in 4 of the 5 150 stars from the 2012 class)  In fact OSU has never brought in this much talent going back to 2006. 

This is in stark contrast to Alabama.  Between the same years of 2010-2012 they averaged 11 top 150 players.  That's more than double Ohio States 5.  They had 13 top 150 alone for 2012.  Forget Saban as the Emperor, forget that he kicks kids off the team, forget the oversigning, forget it.  They have more talent.  We can complain about the nuances of weather and the way they run their program, but the elephant in the room is TALENT.

It's scary to think what Kerry Coombs eluded to, in his now infamous recruitment speech.  We are winning with somewhat inferior personnel.  Urban knows it, the staff knows it(Fickell and the D this year), and we know it. But if we want to compete with Alabama for a national championship, we need 10-12 top 150 guys a year.  That's why Urban works so hard to get the best guys.  Go Bucks

Top 10 Classes From 2009
Rank Before After Explanation
1.
LSU
Alabama
This class, which included CB Dre Kirkpatrick, RB Trent Richardson, OT D.J. Fluker, LB Nico Johnson and QB AJ McCarron, to name a few, was a part of three national championships. What else needs to be said?
2.
Alabama
LSU
The Tigers got bumped from the top spot, but that's as much for what Alabama's class did as opposed to what LSU's class didn't do. This is still a pretty good class which won an SEC title and played for a national championship. Several key defensive contributors came in this class, including DEs Sam Montgomery and Barkevious Mingo, linebacker Kevin Minter and cornerback Morris Claiborne.
3.
Texas
Notre Dame
Several key contributors to the Fighting Irish's 12-1 2012 season came in this class, including LB Manti Te'o, who was a Heisman finalist and won several national player of the year awards as well as the Butkus Award. This class, which was ranked 14th when we did the class rankings in 2009, also featured Mackey Award-winning TE Tyler Eifert, who is leaving as Notre Dame's all-time leading receiver at the position.
4.
USC
Stanford
The 2008 class, which featured QB Andrew Luck, was an important one for this program, but the Cardinal's 2009 class has proven to be a key one as well in their recent success. This class, which did not finish in our 2009 Top 25, went to four straight bowl games, including three straight BCS bowls, and helped Stanford win its first Rose Bowl since Jan. 1, 1972. Tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo were signed in this class, as was workhorse RB Stepfan Taylor, who became Stanford's all-time career rusher.
5.
Florida
Georgia
The Bulldogs' 2009 class featured QB Aaron Murray, who holds the school's all-time career TD pass record and, with over 3,000 yards this season, became the first SEC QB in history to have three consecutive 3,000-yard passing seasons.
6.
Georgia
South Carolina
It would be another class before the Gamecocks signed Marcus Lattimore and another two before they landed Jadeveon Clowney, but this 2009 class brought some excellent in-state talent to Columbia and might have been a key to landing players like Lattimore and Clowney. Included in this class were defensive standouts Stephon Gilmore and D.J. Swearinger as well as WR Alshon Jeffery.
7.
Miami
Florida
The Gators returned to a BCS bowl this season and had key contributors on both sides of the ball that came from this class. Mike Gillislee, who was Florida's first 1,000-yard rusher since 2004, was signed in this class as was Jordan Reed, who led the team in receptions. The class also included three starters along the offensive line. Defensively, linebackers Jelani Jenkins and Jonathan Bostic and defensive back Josh Evans, who led the team in tackles, were a part of this class.
8.
FSU
FSU
Injuries have played a role with a few of the players who came on board in this class, but overall the Seminoles signed some very productive players in 2009. A few of the key pickups include DE Brandon Jenkins, who finished with over 20 sacks and was an All-ACC selection as a sophomore and junior, Xavier Rhodes, who has been a multi-year starter and was All-ACC first team this season, and Dustin Hopkins, who became one of the top kickers in college football and the all-time scoring leader at Florida State and in the ACC.
9.
Ohio State
Ohio State
Jaamal Berry and Dorian Bell are no longer with the program, but DL John Simon, who had nine sacks this past season and was a key cog in the Ohio State defense, is one of the players signed in this class. The Buckeyes also brought in RB Carlos Hyde, who had 16 rushing TDs in 2012, and Corey Brown, who led the team in receptions, in the 2009 class.
10.
Michigan
Michigan
There were a few players in this class who ended up leaving the program, but Michigan had some good pickups as well, including three big ones from out-of-state. Versatile defender Craig Roh made 51 consecutive starts for the Wolverines, OT Taylor Lewan was the Big Ten Rimington-Pace Offensive Lineman of the Year and a first-team All-American this season, and QB Denard Robinson was one of the most electrifying players in college football.

With conference expansion talk percolating again in recent days, I've been revisiting my previous analyses (here and here) of logical Big Ten expansion strategy and potential targets. Let's remember the givens:

1. On-field product isn't everything (but it is nonetheless a piece of the puzzle);
2. Demographics is everything: people watch TV, and TV means money;
3. University presidents truly rule the Big Ten, and will not accept academic mediocrity;
4. More than one school in a state does not add value, it splits the same pie into smaller pieces; and,
5. Notre Dame is no longer the white whale.

With that in mind, there are three basic guiding principles I followed in choosing the most logical targets: They will be in states contiguous to the current, or expanded Big Ten footprint; they will be large, public flagship institutions; and, they will be members of the Association of American Universities.

While there are exceptions to these rules, the exceptions are quite few. Yes, Northwestern is a smaller, private university, but it was a founding member of the conference, predating Ohio State by 16 years. Yes, Nebraska is no longer a member of the AAU, but it was at the time of its admittance, and was excluded from the AAU because UNL failed to score highly enough on a set of four criteria including research expenditures, National Academy members, faculty awards and citations. Nebraska's prowess as a research institution is no less than it was before, but the members of the AAU voted to kick them out nonetheless.

The strategy at this point, based on the criteria above and my previous analysis of television marketing areas, seems pretty clear. After picking up Rutgers and Maryland, Jim Delaney should raid the Atlantic Coast Conference to add the following schools:

• The University of Virginia
• The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
• The Georgia Institute of Technology

Plucking three high-profile members of the conference will not only put the ACC into a flummox, it will also fire up the engines of conference realignment across the country. The PAC-12 could again choose to strip some members from the Big 12, which, along with my recommendation that Delaney pick up Kansas, could put that conference once again in a state of distress, uncertainty, and ultimately instability.

Instability in this case, is a great thing for the B1G, because it could ultimately open the doors for uber-powerful Texas to bolt from the conference. It is my estimation that Texas has replaced (or should replace, since I don't actually have a window into Jim Delaney's thought process) Notre Dame as the Big Ten's White Whale.

Now, if you're counting at this point, the conference would clock in at 18 members (not counting Texas, because I still hold that pulling the Longhorns into the family is a big challenge, and not the most likely outcome in the expansion games). B1G expansion could stop there, as Ohio State's own Gordon Gee recently acknowledged a target of somewhere between 16 and 20 teams.

An 18-team conference doesn't get as much attention in most folks' prognostications, interestingly enough, though it strikes me that with a move to a 9-game conference schedule, an 18-team conference creates two 9-team divisions.

Ultimately, though, I think the big picture strategy is a push for a 20-team "super conference" with four five-team "pods" (though certainly a 16-team conference would lend itself to four NFL-style "divisions," though obviously the collegiate post-season would have to change dramatically to see any type of runoff ahead of a conference championship). So given the 18-teams listed above - the current 14 plus Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Kansas, how do we get to 20?

Florida State may actually be the next most-logical target.

The demographic attraction is blatantly obvious: Florida is a state of huge importance, and while the Gators may be the premiere program in the state du jour, it hasn't always been thus. For those who think "The U" is a candidate, perish the thought. There are absolutely zero compelling reasons to admit Miami to the Big Ten (Florida is a much better fit, but obviously isn't going to bolt from the SEC, well, ever).

FSU was not on my radar previously simply because they are not currently members of the AAU. However, I admit my original snubbing may have been short-sighted. A large, public, flagship state university, FSU has very similar characteristics to many of the current members of the conference. From what I've gathered in an initial online search, the middle 50% of the Fall 2012 incoming freshmen class had a GPA range from 3.7 – 4.2 with an SAT range from 1160 to 1290 and an ACT range from 26 – 29. Those stats aren't bad at all.

The university's freshman retention rate is 91%, one of the highest retention rates in the United States. Furthermore, the school has a 72% six-year graduation rate compared to the national average six-year graduation rate of 53%; in other words, it passes the academic "smell test."

AAU membership is as much about research as it is about anything, and on this front it appears there is work to be done. In fact, the University's strategic plan places significant emphasis on improving the school's research commitment, and mentions improving its graduate programming to the standards incident to attaining membership in the prestigious consortium. As early as 2006, Florida State was considering what might need to be done to achieve membership, going so far as to commission a review from former AAU president Nils Hasselmo (also the former president of the University of Minnesota).

Given President Gee's comments that “there are opportunities to move further south in the East and possibly a couple of Midwest universities," it is safe to assume that FSU's current academic stature and attempts to attain AAU status could be enough to persuade the B1G honchos that the Seminoles are - at the very least - no poorer a fit academically than the Cornhuskers. While Gee did not specify any potential expansion targets, he told the OSU athletic council in December that Big Ten leaders (the people, not the division) will make sure any new school has “like-minded academic integrity.”

Relative to television revenues, FSU certainly has a lot to offer: while Tallahassee is only the #105 television market in the country, neighboring Jacksonville is #49 with 678,000 households, nearby Orlando/Daytona Beach is #19 with 1.45 million homes, and Tampa/St. Pete clocks in all the way up to market #14 with 1.8 million potential viewing households.

Yeah, Florida's a big deal in TV land.

So perhaps Delaney's air raid of the ACC needs to include all four teams: Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia Tech and Florida State. The resulting chaos would allow the SEC to pick up NC State and Virginia Tech, as well as Miami and Clemson if it were so inclined (though I'm not suggesting this makes sense, just a wild-ass possibility). Delaney likely learned his lesson the last time and won't tiptoe around taking multiple scalps at once - as has been reported since, had he realized how quickly the chips would fall the last time, he would have picked up Mizzou and perhaps even Kansas while the Big 12 was in self-destruct mode.

Speaking of which, if the play for the big fish of the ACC works, the PAC-12 and SEC will have to pick up additional teams, remembering that we're all pushing to the magical 20-team "screw you NCAA, we're in charge now" superconference end-game. That means the Big 12 is likely the most vulnerable conference left. While the PAC-12 can pluck some up-and-comers from the WAC or the Mountain West (Hawaii and Boise State, anyone?), the Big 12 doesn't have as many likely candidates. In fact, given half a chance, it seems plausible that Kansas would want to come to the Big Ten, and should enough teams see a better fiscal opportunity with the PAC or the B1G, the infamous grant of rights could become a thing of the past.

Given Gee's mention of other midwest schools as candidates, it seems logical to conclude Kansas is among them, though I'm not ruling out Mizzou as a potential pick-up, as I think they are a much better "cultural" fit in the Big Ten than in the Southeastern Conference.

Which is just what the Big Ten might need if Delaney wants to reel in that White Whale of Austin.