The Spreads of the Ten Most Likely National Title Games

October 22, 2013 at 11:53a    by DJ Byrnes    
38 Comments
Football and $$$

From the Golden Nugget (only accepting up to $3,000 wagers):

  • Alabama (-3) vs. Oregon
  • Alabama (-11) vs. Missouri
  • Alabama (-9.5) vs. Ohio State
  • Alabama (-6.5) vs. Florida State
  • Oregon (-10) vs. Missouri
  • Oregon (-9.5) vs. Ohio State
  • Oregon (-6) vs. Florida State
  • Florida State (-6) vs. Missouri
  • Florida State (-4.5) vs. Ohio State
  • Ohio State (-3) vs. Missouri

Comments

ATXbucknut's picture

It's interesting that Baylor isn't included on the list of ten likeliest NC game scenarios.  If you look at Baylor's schedule, it is backloaded. There is little chance that they make it out of conference play unscathed.
As for Oregon, we'll find out everything we need to know about them these next two games (UCLA, Stanford), although Oregon State is having a decent year and could knock them off at the end of the year.

jeremytwoface's picture

I will maintain my predictions that says Ohio Stat will be the only team to go undefeated in the regular season this year.
People were saying before this past weekend that LSU would jump OSU if they had one loss at the end of the year and I said people were crazy for even considering they would win out.
 
Alabama and Oregon and FSU will all lose. Take it to the bank.

The first man gets the Oyster, the second man gets the shell.

ATXbucknut's picture

I'm inclined to agree with you. Baylor is a lock to lose, Oregon is close to a lock, and I think FSU probably loses one as well.
The reason I believe Bama may actually run the table is because they have a relatively weak schedule going forward. Auburn is their toughest remaining opponent no matter who they meet in the SEC title game. Bama's defense is not unbeatable, but still darn stout.
But you're right, there is still a lot of football to be played. We're getting to the really fun part of the season!

jeremytwoface's picture

Although Auburn is (as of right now) the highest ranked team remaining on Bama's schedule, they also have to play LSU. 
I know LSU just lost to Ole Miss, but they are still a pretty good team.
 
I believe Bama could lost to LSU, Auburn or whoever they play in the title game (Missouri, Florida, South Carolina or Georgia)

The first man gets the Oyster, the second man gets the shell.

Poison nuts's picture

Alabama and Oregon and FSU will all lose. Take it to the bank.

i won't take it to the bank, because I think one of them makes it out undefeated but 2 of the three of them will lose.

"Death created time to grow the things that it would kill" - Detective Rustin Cohle.

Matt F's picture

I can see the roadblocks to undefeated seasons for Alabama and Oregon based on their schedule, but I have a tough time seeing FSU having as good of a chance as going undefeated as we do. Let's not forget that, no matter what ESPN tries to tell us, the ACC is as much of a garbage conference as ever. If you're telling me that an overrated Miami or Florida team is going to beat an FSU team that is clearly the cream of the crop in that conference, well, I'm going to have to disagree with you.
In related news, I really hope you're right and I'm wrong.

southbymidwest's picture

Virginia Tech might have a shot against FSU in the championship game-they have a pretty stout defense this year. I personally hope that VT pounds the crap out of them, but then again, I am married to a VT grad, and have been to a number of games in Lane Stadium.

balbak buck's picture

Can you nostradamus tell me what are the winning lotto # for this saturday?And no.you Aint getting any money from me..No one can really predict college sports when you have kids playing..Anyone can loose on any giving day or night..

jeremytwoface's picture

9.5??? 
 
Sheesh. I hope we get to the NCG and I hope that's the spread so it can be plastered all of the WHAC

The first man gets the Oyster, the second man gets the shell.

mh277907's picture

Remember that the spreads are also set in a way to produce the most betting one way or another and are not necessarily predictions for the game.

buckeyebobcat

Buckeye1004's picture

The lines are designed to get equal money on both sides of the equation so that the house/bookie makes their juice.  The reason the lines move one way or another is because there is too much action on one team and they are trying to balance it out. 

jeremytwoface's picture

Yeah true...
It's still good motivation for a team if they are considered that much of an underdog.

The first man gets the Oyster, the second man gets the shell.

kholmes's picture

I think that is a great point than cant not be overemphasized enough. The person setting the line is really taking a view more on the public (or at least gambling public) perception of teams (in order to balance the action on each side) and not how the person setting the line predicts the game will go.
If the person setting the line thinks that most of the public believes the B1G and OSU are overrated, then they will make OSU a bigger underdog than otherwise would be the case.
If one makes the assumption that almost everyone on this site has a higher opinion of the OSU team than the "general gambling public" does...then by definition, almost everyone on this site will think that OSU is getting too many points and is too much of an underdog.

buckguy10's picture

Notre Dame was getting 14 points last year...

hodge's picture

Miami was -11.5 in 2003.

Doc's picture

Does that mean a single overtime victory, instead of double?

"Say my name."

Hovenaut's picture

Making my way through the thread, immediately asking myself what was Miami's line in '03.

Tks Hodge.

"Success...it's what you do with what you got" - Woody Hayes

AndyVance's picture

Don't miss the good news here, folks: Vegas thinks there is a good chance Ohio State is in the national title game based on its 10 most likely matchups... Four of their 10 scenarios involve the Buckeyes, the same as for the Tide and the Ducks.

Nik's picture

All four teams are in there four times.  All they did was decide on the four most likely teams, then mix them up into all the possible combos

AndyVance's picture

...yeah, that too.

Nik's picture

turns out I can't count, there's actually 5 teams, which is how we get the 10 combinations

Smanpoint10's picture

Why do we care what the hypothetical lines are?

jeremytwoface's picture

Because it's Tuesday and there's nothing else to care about.

The first man gets the Oyster, the second man gets the shell.

WC Buckeye's picture

What about Miami? They're currently undefeated and bowl eligible, and only have FSU and VA Tech as real tests through the end of the regular season. If they were to beat Florida St. twice(assuming neither they nor Clemson lose again, FSU goes to the ACC CG on the tie-breaker), which seems at least plausible, where do they fit in the conversation?

The only thing that's new in the world is the history that we have forgotten.

hail2victors9's picture

Clearly, Non-SEC, somewhere around "Outside looking in."  But, you don't have to worry.  Miami won't be defeated FSU twice, or FSU and Clemson, even.

Those who stay will be CHAMPIONS!
~Bo Schembechler

WC Buckeye's picture

In any case, it will be fun to watch unfold. I don't know much about Miami, but as a foil to FSU (which we definitely need), the current dialogue has the ACC above the B1G in terms of SOS, so we need some big shakeups, I think.

The only thing that's new in the world is the history that we have forgotten.

Triv's picture

I'd bet on OSU against Bama and Mizzou, given the above spreads

Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite

sbentz4's picture

Would anybody take Mizzou and the points in any of these scenarios? I wouldn't.

Ahh Saturday's picture

No spread for Bama-Oregon?

Nik's picture

first one listed , (-3)

Ahh Saturday's picture

Thanks, missed the invisi-font on my iPhone.

Bucksfan's picture

Someone explain to me how Missouri could get either A) get a rematch against Alabama after the SEC championship, or B) not win the East, but get a berth in the national title game?

Kurt's picture

If Ohio State beats Missouri SEC fans will not claim them as truly Ess-Eee-See.

tennbuckeye19's picture

This is true. They will only claim them if they do something good. 
Arkansas has been in the SEC since 1991 and I had people tell me when OSU beat them in the Sugar Bowl that it wasn't a win over a "real" SEC team.

rosycheeks's picture

Ohio State would have no chance against Missouri. Have you seen them? They came over from the Big 12 and immediately acquired SEC speed and moxie.

Haybucks's picture

Good one, but that was Texas A&M.  Mizzou was a year getting over their Big 12 beat downs. TAM usually lost late in their games and didn't need the year to recover.

I never make the mistake of arguing with people for whose opinions I have no respect.
- Edward Gibbon