11W BCS Bowl Predictor

By Alex on November 1, 2010 at 4:00p
34 Comments

As you all know by now, the new BCS standings came out late yesterday afternoon. The computers were not kind if you're a fan of the Buckeyes, as they stood pat at #11, seeing idle LSU and previous #14 Nebraska jump them, after sliding to 16th in the computer poll. The good news for OSU fans is that if the Bucks win out they will be 11-1 with a guaranteed share of the Big Ten title and a possible chance of getting the league's automatic bowl bid.

While the Bucks will need either another Wisconsin loss or a 3-way tie and the lead spot in the BCS standings to get the automatic trip to Pasadena, it will be hard to see the selection committees of the bowls with at-large choices passing up the money and talent level Ohio State brings with them. I don't want to say it will happen for sure, as not to jinx it, but I'm 99.9% positive an 11-1 OSU team is going to a BCS bowl, no matter what Wisconsin or Michigan State try to do to change the minds of America.

While some spots seemed to be a safe choice and some seem to be up for grabs, we have a general idea of what the bowl season would like as of today. You never truly know what the bowl committees is thinking when they make their choices, but here at 11W we're willing to give it a shot. Here are our current BCS bowl choices as the standings look today, so feel free to chime in and let us if you agree, disagree, or what else you think of the outlook as it stands today, as well as what you think will happen the rest of this crazy college football season.

BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP: #1 Oregon vs #2 Auburn

Once again, these predictions are as of today and not neccessarily what we think will happen. Auburn is having a magical season and it looks like a home game against Georgia and road trip Alabama are their only two chances to lose before the SEC Championship game. I can't see them dropping the game to UGA and if they can take the Iron Bowl I think they're Glendale-bound, no matter who wins the East. Oregon, on the other hand, I can see dropping at least one game of a slate that includes Washington, Arizona, and Oregon State, but if they can get past those games, they deserver to be here. I think this game is the one most likely to change and it will be interesting to see is a non-automatic qualifier can sneak in.

ROSE BOWL: #9 Wisconsin vs #3 TCU

As of today Wisconsin gets the 3-way tiebreaker over OSU and MSU and would win a head-to-head with the Bucks if it came down to that as well. They get the game's automatic bid as Big Ten Champions, but an at-large spot opens up as Oregon is in the championship game. Due to selection rules, an automatic qualifying team must be selected if the bowl loses a "host team" to the MNC so the Rose Bowl selects #3 TCU, who if they can beat current #5 Utah next week, has a legitimate shot at the national title should Auburn or Oregon lose a game. Bucks fans are rooting for TCU to lose to Utah and then Utah to lose to Notre Dame, San Diego State, or BYU, but chances are the winner of that game is BCS bound.

FIESTA BOWL: #8 Oklahoma vs Pitt

This will be the worst game of the BCS bowl season by far. I put the Nebraska/Oklahoma winner in this game against the Big East winner, who will be either Pitt, Syracuse, or Rutgers as of today. I am going with the Panthers who seem to be back on track now that they've hit conference play. It won't matter who plays the Big 12 winner though, as both Nebraska and OU will demolish their opponent from the weakest BCS conference in a game 4% of the country will watch.

SUGAR BOWL: #6 Alabama vs #11 Ohio State

Many will say this is the "real" national championship game and by season's end you may be able to make an argument for that. Of course, if Alabama beats Auburn and wins the SEC, those two teams may switch places, but the bottom line is that no matter which SEC team plays in this bowl, it is going to be a great game. At 16th in the computer polls, OSU is looking at about a 1% chance at the championship, so a chance to beat a team from the SEC would be a nice consolation prize. Maybe "OH and NINE" chants can become "One and Nine" chants this year? I'd love to see Mark Ingram and Terrelle Pryor on the same field this January.

ORANGE BOWL: #22 Virginia Tech vs #7 Nebraska

VaTech takes a very weak ACC after stumbling in the beginning of the season. Boise State gets snubbed of an at-large bid, even if they end up running the table in their remaining games. The Broncos' last five opponents aren't that easy, including a tough road game at Nevada, and a loss automatically eliminates them from this game. I do think they will win out though, and still have a shot to get in to the BCS as long as Nebraska or Stanford lose one game, but with the committee having selection power, it will be tough. Remember this is about money and Nebraska fans will travel well. While a two-loss Huskers team may not seem like a fair pick, do the business people making this decision really want the VaTech-BSU rematch?  No matter who gets in this game, the contest probably sets a great argument for a play-off, as there is no way as of today that VT deserves a BCS spot over Boise State, Nebraska, or even Stanford for that matter.

34 Comments

Comments

tomcollins's picture

My predictions:

MNC Game:

#2 Alabama (12-1) vs. #1 Oregon (12-0)
Oregon 48, Alabama 31

Rose:

Wisconsin (11-1) vs. TCU (12-0)

TCU 41, Wisconsin 21

Fiesta:

Nebraska (12-1) vs. Pittsburgh (9-3)

Nebraska 52, Pittsburgh 10

LOL @ this game.

Orange:

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Arizona (10-2)

Arizona 24, Virginia Tech 21

Sugar:

Auburn (11-1) vs. Ohio State(10-2)

Auburn 35, Ohio State 38

Obvious Homer Pick.

Humanitarian Bowl:
Boise vs. someone crappy:

Boise 65, Other Team 7.

I predict Alabama beating Auburn, beating South Carolina in the SEC Championship game and jumping TCU and Boise.  Iowa beats Ohio State.

Rose Bowl is forced to take TCU as an AQ.  Sugar takes Auburn.  Sugar gets next pick, and has to choose between 2 loss Iowa and 2 loss Ohio State.  Sorry Hawkeyes, $$$ wins.  Orange gets the next pick and takes Arizona, who beats Stanford but loses to Oregon.  Fiesta is stuck with Pitt.  Boise gets left out for $$$.

Is it Saturday Yet's picture

Am I the only person on this planet that doesn't think Oregon has a chance against a team with a legit D and a running game?

tomcollins's picture

Oregon has a chance against anyone.  Just a matter of how big that is.  Most of the contenders have fairly bad defenses this year.  Auburn's is pretty terrible, Alabama is nothing special.  TCU and Boise probably have the best defenses that can stop them.

There's a great chance Boise is the best team in the country.  It's a shame we are just guessing about it since they play no one.

osujake9's picture

i seem to remember last year about this time people saying that oregon's offense is unstoppable...few months later 17 points!

BuckeyeSki's picture

No sir you are not

Banned from BlackShoeDiaries since 2008. Crime: Slander/Defamation of Character Judgement: Guilty

iball's picture

No way Auburn beats Bama

“There’s one thing I have learned through all my adventures and conquests - it’s that some people are just wired for success. I had no choice when it came to being great - I just am great.” – Kenny Powers

tomcollins's picture

Bama is not that great.  Auburn has looked better against common opponents.  Auburn has a great shot in that game.  It's just gonna be hard for them to beat everyone, even as a favorite.

Ultrabuckeyehomer's picture

MNC - Orgeon v. Bama

OSU - non BCS game (hope I am wrong, unless we play an SEC team)

As for Oregon's offense being stopped - yeah, it can happen, but it would be remarkable. The offense is better than last year.  And after rewatching the Rose Bowl a second time (sober, nonetheless) we didn't really stop them like the point total suggests.  They averaged 1/2 a first down every snap they took basically.  We won that game due to a total team effort. Ball control offense and "enough" stops on defense, combined with costly turnovers on thier part. 

We earned the win 100%, but I don't think it is fair to say the result will be repeated by a team with a great defense again just because we held them to 17 pts on that day.  Can it happen, sure. Will it happen, doubtful.  Will Oregon win the NC - I also doubt this.  Bama has the makeup to control the ball and bleed the clock. And although I doubt they "stop" the Oregon offense, I think they can "slow them down" enough like we did to win.

I would love to see a Oregon v Bama title game. More interesting than any other matchup not involving OSU. 

Buckeye_Mafia's picture

Personally, I would not want to see tOSU face any SEC team. Whether it be in a BCS game or a lower tier Bowl game like the Outback Bowl. Chants of 0-10 seem more likely as I wouldn't chant about being 1-9 against the SEC. Its not a talent thing at this point. Its a pyschological thing now. Look at Nebraska againstt Texas. No one outside of Austin would argue that Texas is better than the Nebraska. Same hingwith us and the SEC...

Adolphus Washington is half grizzly bear and half dragon | Noah Spence kills quarterbacks, just to watch them die.

JakeBuckeye's picture

What a great attitude to take! Lets just stay at 0-9 until we all die then we can give it a shot!

Sack up, you're not even the one playing.

Ultrabuckeyehomer's picture

I agree.  Although it would suck to lose again, I want the Win. College football fans happen to have the shortest attention spans it seems, and all the talk about us not being able to beat an SEC team would stop. Seriously, we are just doomed to be hounded by a boogie man, apparently.

First the Michigan game in the 90's, now the SEC in bowl games. I never even knew the SEC stat until the lead-up to the title game against FL, but somehowit feels like we have lived with this embarrassing fact forever.  Anyway, just as it seemed we would never beat Michigan when it mattered most, we eventually did.  The same will hold true for the SEC in bowls.  So, lets go for it.  What is the worst that can happen?  they can say we cannot beat an SEC team? Well, we live with that anyway.  Who cares if it is 0-10 as oppossed to 0-9    

SonOfBuckeye's picture

I would love to see OSU vs. Alabama even though I'd slightly favor the latter to win.  Since the Buckeyes won't be in the MNC, I'd prefer a shot at a strong SEC team to any other game, including the Rose Bowl.  Regardless of their respective rankings, it would be more satisfying to beat Saban and the Tide than TCU (or whichever other non-Oregon team winds up at the Rose Bowl).

Pam's picture

Any SEC team?  How would beating Vandy or KY get the 0-9 monkey off our backs?  You know that anytime the SEC loses in an OOC game or Bowl it's because that team was one of the worst in the conference despite being the "toughest conference from top to bottom"  The same would/will happen if the Bucks beat anyone other than 'Bama or Auburn.  I have given up on using the SEC as the measuring stick that all of CFB must use to define themselves as worthy. 

Squirrel Master's picture

ARe you kidding me its not a talent thing? Of course its a talent thing. If Ohio State had the team that started this year they would beat Alabama and I would say anyone out there. Wisconsin won because they had an advantage that this team isn't built for. Ohio State has been building to beat the Oregons and SEC teams.

Now back to the talent thing, with the injuries this team has incurred, they won't beat any of the top 5 teams no matter how good the offense is. I love this team and they are good, they just don't have the depth anymore to make a strong run.

I would like to pull out a win against Iowa and get into the Rose Bowl vs. TCU. I think Ohio State can beat them.

Then again, with time heals wounds, OSU could beat Bama or Auburn in the Sugar!

I saw a UFO once.......it told me to have a goodyear!

Kyle's picture

Unfortunately anything less than a BCS championship game berth and title will be a letdown for this year's squad.  Maybe that isn't fair but I'm pretty sure a lot of fans feel that way.  I think the conference picture is entirely too unsettled to start guessing where OSU might play in December or hopefully January.  OSU is no longer in the driver's seat, not to mention we have to play a very physical Iowa team with a depleted defense.

I'm just hoping we can finish strong and win out.  The rest will take care of its self.

ColdBuckeye's picture

 

How has Ohio State responded after bungling their No. 1 ranking a few weeks ago? They've merely won their last two games by a combined score of 101-10.

Yet despite laying a 52-10 hurting on Minnesota in Minneapolis, Ohio State did not advance in the BCS rankings. Instead, they were leapfrogged by the LSU Tigers, who were idle this past weekend.

That doesn't make sense at all. And it makes even less sense when you consider the rather obvious reality that Ohio State is better than LSU.

tomcollins's picture

It makes sense when you realize we played Purdue and Minnesota, two of the most sorry programs around, and computers view it the same as a 3-0 win.

LSU has accomplished far more than we have.  Our best win is over Illinois (or maybe Miami).   LSU might not be a better team, but we need to prove it on the field and not just looking at the roster.  We have not done that.

btalbert25's picture

What has LSU done that is so great?  Didn't they lose to the only really good team they've played?

741's picture

Patience, young grasshoppers.

(I do like Alex's Sugar Bowl prediction though.)

ColdBuckeye's picture

Are you kidding me? So TomCollins, LSU's narrow wins over struggling WVU or totally depleted North Carolina (won each game by 6) are more impressive than OSU dominating their last 2 BCS conference opponents? Perhaps you are more impressed by LSU's 3 touchdown victory of (Bowl-Subdivision) McNeese State? By the way, Cal-Poly beat McNeese by 30. Marshall looked better against WVU, compared to LSU. 

More accomplished? Ha!!

Johnny Ginter's picture

i'm not sure you understand, the computers don't look at margin of victory anymore, so we might as well have won our past two games with a combined score of 4-0. i don't think tom is saying LSU is better than OSU (i don't think many people would say that), but LSU's computer resume is better than that of OSU. not by a ton, but their OOC schedule helps them right now.

not that it really matters that much, they're going to lose next weekend anyhow

ColdBuckeye's picture

The computers are flawed more than the "human" polls. 

Johnny Ginter's picture

yeah the whole thing stinks

tomcollins's picture

Yes, beating UNC and WVU (who each have 5-3 records) is more impressive than beating Minnesota and Purdue.  I don't see how this is even close.  Even looking at the scores.  I'm not easily impressed by beating down terrible teams.

I'm not arguing that LSU is a better team.  I don't think they are.  I'm just arguing they've done more than us.  In my power rankings, I have LSU at #18 and Ohio State at #8.  Sagarin Predictor (a power ranking system), has us at #7, and has LSU at #22.  But in terms of accomplishments (ELO CHESS for Sagarin), he has us at #1 and LSU at #8.  LSU has a single loss to one of the top 2 teams in the country.  We have a loss to Wisconsin by a wider margin that's not as good of a team (#33 in Sagarin Predictor).  That's a nasty black eye.  To make up for that, we need to accomplish something good.

The only thing we have going for us in terms of quality wins are Illinois and Miami.  Illinois still isn't that impressive, although I expect them to win a few more games.  Miami has completely collapsed and will likely lose a few more games hurting us.

Just to compare some of the wins (using Sagarin Predictor) against top 50 teams.

West Virginia - #39

#North Carolina - #38

Miss St. - #35

@ Florida - #27

Loss - @ Auburn - #15

to ours:

Miami #18

@ Illinois #31

Loss - @ Wisconsin #33

 

@Florida > @ Illinois

West Virginia + #UNC + MSU > Miami (it is considerably harder to win those 3 games than win 1 game at home to miami)

Wisconsin < Auburn

 At this point in time, there is no doubt at all LSU has accomplished more than us.  Especially as Miami keeps going down a spiral.  The good news for us is Illinois has a great shot of getting 9 wins and we have the chance to beat Iowa, which would put us back in front.

goodlifesean's picture

Yes, I'm a homer, I don't go on the scout boards because of all the panic. Bucknuts just gets on my nerves with posters. God I'm getting tired of all the freaking doom and gloom in the comments. We are 8-1, our only loss coming to #9 Wisconsin. Our head coach is the third fastest to 100 wins in big ten history. We have an offense that has put up over 35 points in all but three games and in those five the starters were pretty much out by the fourth quarter. The defense is remaining fairly stout even though they have been decimated by injuries. 

I hope the Bucks comeback rested and beat the next three teams by an average of 28 points and shut everyone the hell up. That is all 

nickma71's picture

41-21 TCU over Wisconsin? Seriously? I don't think so. I don't see them having a chance against Wisconsin. So unless the douche finds a way to lose, Wisconsin roles.

nickma71's picture

Someday when college football fans start making predictions on what they think should happen instead of what they want to happen....eh, it would be real boring.

 

ATL Buckeye's picture

I want to beat an SEC team REALLY bad (probably more so than getting a championship), but it needs be against a team we can beat. Sorry, but not sure we match up well against Auburn or Alabama. However, I think UF, Arkansas, LSU, S. Carolina are good matchups that we can conceivable win. We owe S. Carolina a beat down in a bowl game anyways...still hear about those games from southern dudes from time to time.  

dmurder's picture

Well it's pretty easy to have an awesome computer ranking. When they put the entire sec in the polls.

So dumb all these teams are going to have 2-3 losses except for bama, and maybe auburn.

I think if we beat Iowa which is a very solid team, we should jump into the top 5 at least. after all these scenarios we have a legit shot. One of these teams are gonna lose.

TCU vs Utah

Bama vs Auburn, LSU, regular season, then the sec championship

Oklahoma vs Nebraska in the Big 12 championship

Oklahoma vs Baylor, Oklahoma St

"We have always had the best damn band in the land, now we have the best damn team in the land"- Jim Tressel 1-03-03

btalbert25's picture

Anytime I read comments that say, I don't want to play...... fill in any team, it make me want to puke.  This is FUCKING OHIO STATE people.  Being scared to play other teams needs to be kept at other schools, but not this one.  I want to play the biggest and baddest team on the block every year.  I don't care if somone thinks this team stinks because they happen to give up 10 points to a bad team.  I've never seen such terrible attitudes and whining.  We can't hang with Auburn.  Oregon would kill us.  Jesus, do you all want to go to the Music City bowl and play a MAC champ?  Or do you think they would beat us too.  I don't understand how no one can enjoy watching this team.  They have 1 loss.  They are destroying bad teams, something they have struggled to do in the last 10 years.  Remember all those games against teams like Ohio U, UC, Marshall, Navy, that were pretty close?  We don't get that anymore.  The negativity is astonishing.  Now adays on this site if you are positive about the team, and think they have a shot against a good team it makes you a homer that refuses to believe this team sucks or something.  Bullshit, this is a very good team, and I guarrentee they beat Iowa.  Iowa has been beat, 2 times folks, they will have a 3rd loss.

btalbert25's picture

I suspect that still won't be enough for some though, and immediately following the game we'll hear how Michigan is going to beat the Buckeyes, or they still aren't that good, or well Iowa does have 3 losses.

Ultrabuckeyehomer's picture

We shoud not be afraid of playing any team, I totally agree with this sentiment.

However, I do admit to being a little gunshy after the the 2007 NC game, followed by the USC demolition in the beginning of 2008.  At that point, I was convinced we could not beat a good SEC team, and I was happy to play Texas in the bowl game - although we lost again.  However, I think we have improved on both lines since that time, the major reason we couldn't play with the best teams in the country for a few seasons.

Now, I actually want to play an SEC team, although my gut is that we would not beat Bama.  Not because we are not any good, or incapable of beating an SEC team, just that I think that's a better team than we are. But, shit, lets try.  Its not like we haven't lost to lesser teams overselves.  

I like our chances against any other SEC team, though.  Auburn would be a good game, SC would be a good game, LSU would be a good game, etc. 

btalbert25's picture

I want to take on the best they've got, and in my mind it's Definitely BAMA.  LSU is really not that great despite a good Record.  Auburn is scary on offense but D is not that great.  I think A win against any of those 3 and the media would consider it a big win.  Playing South Carolina though, won't garner any respect.  May as well play Oklahoma State or someone.