Photo changed by popular demand.Football recruiting season for 2010 is now mostly completed, which of course means that the rush for 2011 recruits has begun. But recruiting and preparing for spring practice is not all that is on the mind of some Big Ten coaches. In places like Ann Arbor and Champaign-Urbana, assistant coaches are updating their resumes and student newspaper editors are scanning the head coaching landscape for potential heirs to the head coaching position. Since I'm the type of guy who likes looking ahead just as much as looking back, I'd like to present to you my candidates for the hottest seat in Big Ten football coaching for 2010.
Rich Rodriguez
RichRod is the most obvious choice for this honor, since he coaches at a school with a long and glorious history of gridiron excellence, and his teams have utterly failed to live up to that excellence in his two years at the helm. Despite the lack of success on the field, Rodriguez has managed to haul in two above-average recruiting classes the past two years, although his 2010 class is a step down from the stellar 2009 class. But the success in recruiting will probably add even more pressure to perform in 2010, since it would leave him without excuse. He could blame his first year, and possibly even his second, on the notion that Lloyd Carr's players didn't fit his wide-open style. But having personally brought in two pretty good classes in a row, now RichRod must win games on the field.
Another factor that is surely weighing heavily against Rodriguez is his lack of success against Ohio State. The fact that Carr dropped 6 out of his last 7 against the Buckeyes doesn't help either. The fans in Ann Arbor are desperate for a win against OSU, and if Rodriguez cannot deliver this season the calls for his firing will be magnified considerably. With OSU fielding a team that is primed for a run at the MNC, the odds against pulling out a win in Columbus are staggeringly high, which means that he must win 8-9 games prior to the season finale to save his job. For this reason, I would consider RichRod to be the top candidate for the hottest seat in the Big Ten.
Ron Zook
Illinois fans must be getting restless after five seasons with "The Zooker" at the helm. There was much hope and fanfare after Zook's 2007 squad finished 9-3 in the regular season and accepted a bid to play in the Rose Bowl after Ohio State qualified for the BCS Championship game. The 2nd place Big Ten finish, along with the big win over OSU at Columbus when the Buckeyes were ranked #1, earned Zook a lucrative contract extension until 2013. Zook's Illini folded on the big stage of the Rose Bowl, losing 49-17. But the optimism was palpable in Champaign-Urbana because Juice Williams was only a Sophomore and Regis Benn was only a freshman. Surely it would be nothing but glory from that point on.
Needless to say, things haven't exactly worked out as planned. Prior to the 2008 season, the Big Ten Network thought enough of the Illini football team to feature them in an on-going pseudo-reality-show called "Illinois Football: The Journey". Little did they know that the team's "journey" would be more like a drunken stumble. The team limped to 3-5 in Big Ten play and finished 5-7 overall, missing a possible bowl berth as a result of a season-ending embarrassment at Northwestern. Any hopes for improvement in 2009 were lost early in the season as they were crushed 37-9 by Missouri and 30-0 at Ohio State. Despite the presence of 5-star studs Benn and Martez Wilson, the Illini finished 3-9, thus rekindling memories of Zook's first two seasons where they finished 2-9 and 2-10. For this reason, I think Ron Zook's seat is almost as hot as RichRod's.
Tim Brewster
At first glance, this would seem to be a strange pick, since Minnesota's glory days in football are remembered only by nursing home residents. Any coach who has led the Golden Gophers to two straight bowl games should feel pretty safe in his position, since fan expectations are not nearly as high in the Twin Cities as they are in places like Columbus and Ann Arbor. But Minnesota just built a new stadium on campus, and the top brass at the university are surely hoping for a financial windfall from the football program to help them through these lean economic times. Also, Brewster's contract pays him $1 million per year, which is appropriate for a big-time winning coach, but not for a first-time head coach who's running a .500 program year after year.
Brewster is the kind of guy who seems to generate a lot of enthusiasm, but so far has failed to deliver when it counts. While his last two teams have finished 7-6 and 6-7, 7 of those 13 wins have come against weak OOC foes like Syracuse and South Dakota State. In the Big Ten, they finished 3-5 in the last two seasons, and have not won a game in November during Brewster's tenure. It doesn't help that Brewster's immediate predecessor Glen Mason is now a commentator for the Big Ten Network, thus reminding Gopher fans of the 64-57 record he compiled in his ten seasons at the helm. Finally, many fans are still upset about Brewster's 1-11 rookie season, with the 11 losses being the most in program history for one season. Although the university seems content to give him one more season, some fans are already restless and wanting a change.
So what do you think? Is there really any competition for RichRod in this category? Should I have mentioned guys like Bill Lynch and Mark Dantonio?
Comments
I'm still not convinced that RichRod's seat is that hot. He has so unbelievably lowered expectations in Ann Arbor that I think winning 7 games next season would be enough to save his job. If he can somehow beat Ohio State--and that's not out of the question, see Cooper, John and the 1990s games in the Shoe--then he could get by with as little as 5 wins. He has that promise of the mystical spread in his back pocket; Michigan fans seem to think that his "decided schematic advantage" and Barwis are the key to the promised land. You don't need gimmick offenses to win; you need the right coach to recruit the talent and put it on the field. Michigan whiffed on getting coaches they really wanted--Les Miles, who despite his clock management would be a tough coach to beat at Michigan--and settled for RichRod. I think they give him at least 4 years, if only to be haughty and say "we're not like other schools, we don't dump coaches quickly."
The question could also be are any of these coaches truly on the hot seat. Matt makes a good point that Rich Rod has lowered the bar (how is that possible?) at UM to the point that a mediocre bowl game would likely cause car flipping and couch burning in the state up north the likes of which Karen A. Holbrook never imagined. Finances may come to play with Brewster, but likewise with Zook as well. Where Minny may say they can't afford Brewster at that salary with those results, can Illinois really bring in someone better than Zook for what they are going to pay? Same with MSU. I find the likely-hood of some of those coaches to be asked to step down on par with any of the OSU assistants, should the Bucks not perform to expectations in a year they should be vying for a MNC. PS: we are so spoiled.
I can't believe the heat on Zook isn't more intense. Did anyone see their season finale against Fresno State at home? There were crickets. And, they lost. That contract extension was a bad idea.
I'm looking at UM's 2010 schedule and I'm trying to find 7 wins. Being generous, I think 5 is reasonable but 6 is stretching it a bit, and 7 would be extremely optimistic. I can't see them beating Iowa, even if it's at Ann Arbor. Ditto for Wisconsin. Maybe they beat MSU at home, so combined with a road win at IU (not a given for them) that gets them to 6. Getting to 7 means a road win against one of the following: Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, or Ohio State. Even the true blue RR believers have to be nervous about this schedule and their man's chances of sticking around.
I am thinking/ hoping Rich Rod hangs around AA for a while. If he gets canned Harbaugh (or Miles) likely replaces him (aka: no hope they screw the next hire up as badly as the screwed up the last). While I am not certain that scUM ever becomes a power under Rich Rod (7-5, 8-4 at best...), I have little doubt that Harbaugh/Miles, etc... would thrive there.
That's an excellent point, and Michigan might very well lose all 4 of those away games. I look for Notre Dame to be significantly better under Brian Kelly, because the cupboard isn't bare for them and they should be able to perform much more effectively with Weis gone. I'm still not sold on Purdue--they might just have been a flash in the pan by beating OSU and Mich last year. I can't remember if Joey Elliot is coming back for another season, but so long as they have him on the squad they will be dangerous.
However, losing those away games would still leave UM at 6-6 and they would get a bowl bid to a dumpy bowl. They'd get an overmatched opponent, maybe a MAC team, and they'd beat them. I think a 7-6 season with a bowl win and Devin Gardner about to enter his second season will be enough to keep Rich Rod around. They'd need a scandal to get him gone next season, or another bowlless season.
Agreed... you have to think that a bowlless (pretty sure we're all inventing a word, there) season ending in a 17-30 point loss in C-bus would be the end of RR.
One thing I forgot to mention: UM's home opener is with Connecticut. UConn was 8-5 last year (albeit in the Big Least conference) and won their bowl game against South Carolina. This is not a gimme game, especially in an opener when the spread offense might not be on all cylinders yet.
Understatement of the year Joe.....
I think Dantonio is safe, he has medicore teams at least, and I think he could turn it around this season. He mostly is able to beat UM, which is big for the program.
"I can’t remember if Joey Elliot is coming back for another season, but so long as they have him on the squad they will be dangerous."
Elliot is gone, and so there will be a competition in the spring. But the favorite will be Miami transfer Robert Marve, who was Florida's Mr. Football in 2006. As with MSU last year replacing Brian Hoyer with Kirk Cousins, this might be a situation where Purdue improves at the position despite losing an established starter.
Here's an excellent summary of the situation from our friends over at Hammer and Rails:
http://www.hammerandrails.com/...
Tressel's ass should be on the hot-seat! Haha gotcha.
RichRod HAS to make a bowl game this year if he wants to keep his job. If he doesn't get to 6 wins, there's no chance he comes back. If he's right at 6 wins (And thus loses the bowl game), it could go either way and if he gets to 7 (Which includes a bowl win), I think he's fine.
hilarious
"If he can somehow beat Ohio State–and that’s not out of the question, see Cooper, John and the 1990s games in the Shoe–then he could get by with as little as 5 wins."
John Cooper has nothing to do with this conversation. Tressel owned Carr and has owned Rodriguez and I don't see that changing. If Rodriguez can somehow get the top Ohio talent to go North, then he has a chance. At this point Tressel pretty much gets any of the top Ohio players that he wants. I agree that Michigan could be dangerous this year though; no one has taken them seriously the last few seasons. They might just sneak up on some teams this year.
I can see them winning a few close high-scoring games against good teams that they weren't expecting to win. The real question with RichRod is when will his defense get to the point of basic competency.
I find it interesting how everyone has been talking about Bill Stewart out in WV as someone who is in completely over his head. However, their defense was at least solid during their near-championship run. Makes me wonder how much better the wolverines would have been if RichRod had dragged him along after.
If their 160 lb quarterback can stay healthy, they're returning enough reps on offense that they should be able to be somewhere at least in the top half of the conference in that area. The real question will be whether they can get enough of a defense to deal with any of the teams coming in who are actually, I dunno, good. I wouldn't keep rodriguez around another year with a 7-win season - remember that Carr got fired for consistent 9-wins... but who knows what UM is going to do.
I've been dodging this site all day due to the larger than life Snakeoil Salesman Portrait....
+1
"Would you buy a used car from this man?"
Breaking sports news alert Fall 2010 - Rich rod and the Wolverines shoot their wad against UCONN!!! Another big upset in the big house to start the season!
If I had a dollar for every time I had a right wrist injury AMIRIGHT AMIRIGHT?!?!?
Welp, there goes the title.
RR has to go 8-4 next year or he's done. no way in hell a 6-6 record going into bowl season will save him, and I have no idea where you guys are getting the lowered expectations thing from. michigan fans and boosters aren't going to sit around and happily accept .500 regular seasons, and given that people were talking about getting rid of RR LAST season, he absolutely has to show marked improvement.
personally I think they go 7-5 and RR gets fired. they lose their best defensive player, and everything behind their d-line is an absolute mess. a good offense that should be one of the best in the big 10 (provided the RBs stay healthy) won't offset that. basically, it's a Joe tiller purdue team
so i get online go to 11w web site and have to see that douches pic. the head shot looks like he is trying to land the role of teacher for saved by the bell the sun school for the "gifted" years.
seriously how can that guy recruit i dont think he is allowed within 500 feet of a school, icecream stand, or little league field
I don't know that Notre Dame is going to be that much better with Brian Kelly. Notre Dame put up a lot of points last year. They had no defense, and I just dont' see that changing. Not to mention they lose their QB and their best receiver.
I'm not so sure Les Miles would've been any better in Michigan. Miles benefitted by inherting a program from Nick Saban. His early success had a lot to do with that. He also is in a region that is very very rich from a recruiting standpoint. Louisiana usually has a few good recruits and oh yeah Florida, Alabama, and Texas are very close.
His last 2 seasons the talent was there at LSU but they just weren't that good overall. I don't see Miles landing the type of classes at Michigan that he did at LSU. He just wouldn't land that many Ohio kids, and Michigan is not full of great recruits.
No hope they screw up the next hire as bad? How do we know they don't become Nebraska or Notre Dame who by the way still may not have it right.
Nebraska does, but I just don't know about Brian Kelly and Notre Dame. I just don't see much of a difference between his offense and Weis in terms of points scored. Until they get a defense they won't be good.
from SBN:
Jon Diebler has had his right wrist X-rayed twice in the past 24 hours and it is immobilized in a splint, coach Thad Matta said today when asked about the junior guard rubbing the wrist after falling on it late in the win at Illinois on Sunday.
"It was not broken," Matta said during the Big Ten coaches teleconference. "We X-rayed it last night when we got back and then they did another X-ray today and the X-ray was negative. They’ve got him in a splint immobilizing it today, but everything is full go and hopefully, as the day wears on, we’ll get him in for treatment and more movement."
If MSU fires Dantonio, can we have him back at DC?
I get the idea of lowered expectations from their blog sites. Not that they are lowered for all times, but for next season, yes, just making a bowl game has been many of their fans stated goal. Of course they would like to win the conference, beat OSU, play for a national title, things of that nature, but most fans of the urine and blue realize that (most likely) won't happen next year.
right, but there's a difference between a national title and a 7-6 season. mark my words, anything less than 8-4 gets RR shitcanned. if lowered expectations means um fans dont see a NC as a realistic goal, then yeah, expectations have been lowered. but they do still expect michigan to compete for big 10 titles, and in two seasons RR has lost 13 big ten games.
as a comparison, lloyd coached um for 13 seasons and lost a total of 23 big ten games. that shit isnt gonna fly up in ann arbor
as a more fun comparison, Tressel has also lost 13 big ten games
I never realized Dantonio was on the hot seat at all. I mean is Michigan State any different than they've always been. This season was a disappointment I'm sure, but aren't they pretty used to being a middle of the road Big 10 team.
I didn't put him on the list, but I mentioned him at the end because you can make a case for it. His record at MSU is only 22-17 in three seasons and he is 0-3 in bowl games, none of which were BCS bowl games. Add to that the off-the-field incident near the end of the season and the fact that they finished under .500 and I think there's probably some unrest in Sparty-ville. Not enough to start a panic, but I'd say next year he needs to do better or he really will be on the hot seat.
And yes, I'd love to have him back as DC, but that's probably not going to happen.
SCum has a new athletic director who may want his own guy. After all, RR has not been a class act. His behavior isn't as bad as the former ND guru, but he embarrassed his school over the W.Va. cash thing. The embarrassment continues with a law suit over a fraudulent real estate deal near Clemson where he was supposed to bring the deep pocket.
If the NCAA finds officially that RR and his boys violated regs on practice time and supervising voluntary practices, he might be gone before September. If the FREEP is right the NCAA will have no choice.
I have never seen a hometown paper so obviously want someone gone so quickly as with FREEP and Michigan. Not that I blame them, but it's still kind of amazing.
The really funny part is to see the people on MGoblog defend DickRod and hate on the paper. You have people on there writing to advertisers and everything.
Hahahaha OMG soooooo funny
I expect RR to be gone next year as well, but it would take worse than a 6-6 record, especially if one of those wins were against the Bucks. And I don't think that any sane Michigan fan thinks they can compete for the Big Ten next year.
Who can afford to advertise in Detroit?
Marshall Mathers
What may get Dantonio on the hot seat is the off the field stuff. Very surprised by it, but he is having some thugery issues. Although if he keeps beating the skunk bears....
Somebody wake me when the picture of the douche is off the main page. Brutal.
Is it just me, or is RichRod giving the same look a baby seal gives just before you smack it in the head?
Alright, I changed the picture. I hope everyone is happy now.
they could not fire Zook because the school did not have enough money to buy out his contract...that is the only reason he is still around.
Tressel gets pretty much any of the top talent in Ohio that he wants????? Where have you been the last 2 months. He got 4 of top 20 this year and none of 3 five star recruits in Ohio. Terrible year over all for Tressel - especially in Ohio.