Predictions Report Card
The Zooker is overdue for a nuclear momentNow that the regular season is over and OSU fans everywhere are anxiously awaiting bowl season, it might be a good time to look back with 20/20 hindsight at some preseason predictions. Back in June, we participated in the annual Big Ten Blogger Preseason Awards, and we posted our ballot for all to see. For 11W, it was a democratic process, as the ballot reflected a composite of the individual picks of all of the writers (6 at that time). This is a good opportunity to evaluate how we did as a whole with these predictions, and also see if we did well as individuals whenever there was significant disagreement.
Coach of the Year: Mark Dantonio
This was a close vote: Alex, Jason, and Luke went with the Spartans’ head man while Chris chose JoePa and Corey and I both went with The Vest. None of us chose the eventual winner, Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz. On an individual level, I have to admit that I was swayed by the Dantonio factor into being a little more optimistic about the Spartans this season then they probably deserved. I picked them to finish 3rd in the conference and I remember arguing passionately with one commenter that they deserved to be a top-25 team. As it turned out, MSU finished 6th in the Big Ten with a 4-4 record and finished 6-6 overall, and that’s without having Ohio State on their schedule. I still love coach D, but I have to admit that this season did not reflect well on him. Here’s hoping that it was an anomaly. Grade: D.
Best Heisman Candidate: Terrelle Pryor
This one might seem like a clear case of homerism, but the truth is that the pick made a lot of sense at the time. Northwestern blog site Lake The Posts not only picked Pryor, but they also made a strong argument that the only real choice was between Pryor and Penn State’s Evan Royster. All of the 11W writers chose Pryor for this award, although Chris added the “or Royster” qualifier. While it is true that Pryor never came close to being a legitimate Heisman candidate, neither did anyone else from the Big Ten and so the most you can say about this one is that it’s a wash. Grade: C.
Sleeper Team to Crack the Upper Tier: Minnesota
For this one, we defined “Upper Tier” to mean the top 4, and so only Ohio State, Iowa, Penn State, and Northwestern/Wisconsin qualified this season. Out of those teams, the only one that could have been considered a “sleeper” was Northwestern. This was another close vote among 11W writers. Alex, Jason, and Luke chose Minnesota, Chris and Corey took Michigan State, and I chose Northwestern. I didn’t really think Michigan State qualified as a “sleeper” team since most of us picked them to do well this season. But Minnesota certainly was. They had started out well in 2008 before fading late in the season. The thought was that the new stadium might be worth a game or two. As it turned out, the Gophers mostly disappointed after a decent start. They seemed to be in good shape after a victory over Purdue put them at 4-2. But lousy weather and an injury to star receiver Eric Decker hurt them in a 20-0 road loss to Penn State, and the wheels seemed to come off after that. Minnesota limped to a 3-5 finish in the Big Ten and 6-6 overall. Grade: D minus.
Most Likely to John L Smith (Lose It): Tim Brewster
For this award, the votes were fairly well scattered. Chris and Jason went with Brewster, Luke and I chose Ron Zook, Alex took Brett Bielema and Corey went with Rich Rodriguez. While none of the B10 coaches went into meltdown mode this season, we did get to see RichRod break down into tears. Zook might not have had a Smith-style sideline tirade, but he should have. His team finished 3-8 this season and in general has severely under-performed in the 2 years since that Rose Bowl beat-down at the hands of USC. A bit of histrionic rage might have inspired the Illini to play up to their potential a little more this season. Maybe. Grade: B minus.
Shonn Greene Award (Player to Come from Nowhere): John Clay
There were debates internally as to whether a highly-regarded recruit like Clay (or Devier Posey) could be said to have come “from nowhere”, but the interpretation we settled on was that the guy couldn’t have been a regular starter the previous season. Corey and Chris went with Posey on their ballots, while Jason and I both chose Clay. Alex was torn between OSU’s Brandon Saine and Minnesota’s DeLeon Eskridge, while Luke was torn between Clay and Indiana’s Ben Chappell. So as a group we went with Clay by the slimmest of margins, and it paid off as he was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year by both the media and the coaches. Posey and Saine both had excellent seasons, with the latter garnering 2nd team All-Big 10 status. Chappell completed over 62% of his passes for over 2900 yards, but also threw 15 INT’s. Grade: A.
Must See Game of the Year: Ohio State @ Penn State
This was a unanimous selection and you can make an argument that it truly was the game of the year in the Big Ten, at least from a Buckeye perspective. But I would argue that the de facto Big Ten Championship game between Ohio State and Iowa was the true “must-see” thriller of this season. Not only was it for all the conference marbles, but it was a dramatic game that went into overtime. Add to that the gritty performance by Iowa’s back-up QB and the game-winning FG by OSU’s back-up kicker and you have all the elements that make up a classic. Grade: B.
Upset Special: Penn State @ Michigan
This one was a toss-up in the voting, with Luke and Corey going with MSU over PSU. Jason and I went with Michigan over Penn State and Alex went with Michigan over MSU (Chris did not choose an upset). It seems like not many of us had faith in the Nittany Lions, even though we all picked them to finish in the top 2 in the conference. Of course, none of those upsets actually happened, and the upset of the year has to be Purdue over OSU. Apparently, we were all swayed by coach Tressel’s record against non-ranked teams. Grade: F.
The Big Finish
Here was our composite prediction for the final Big Ten standings:
- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Michigan State
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Northwestern
- Wisconsin
- Minnesota
- Purdue
- Indiana
On the one hand, we picked the top and the bottom pretty well, but after that it gets a little murky. We picked Iowa for 5th and they finished 2nd. We picked Illinois to finish 4th and they ended up at 9th. We obviously underrated Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Purdue. And most surprisingly, we gave Michigan much more credit than they deserved. Well, that’s one mistake we will have to rectify next season. Grade: C.
Overall grade: C.
Anyone else feel the need to come clean? The confessional booth is open.
Is there any team in the Big Ten that looks poised to seriously compete for the Big Ten title next year besides Ohio State?
IMO…
Penn State is going to enter a rebuilding year.
Michigan may make a case but I doubt they will come through.
Was Iowa that good or were they just getting lucky all those games?
Wisconsin is my pick for the “I Really Don’t Want to Challenge Ohio State for the Big Ten Title, But if No One Else is Then I Guess I Have To” Award
Iowa and Wisconsin both have a lot of players coming back next year–they’ll be OSU’s main competition for the Big Ten title, especially because we play them both on the road.
How much is Penn State rebuilding on defense? Offensively, it seemed like this year was much more of a rebuilding year. Their young offensive line was what doomed them in their big games this year.
Yea, Iowa is going to be a real test.
i think i’ll go ahead and bring up that i thought boom herron was going to be the second coming of michael wiley. oh well. also i thought saine was totally done, never happier to be wrong about a player.
i did however correctly predict that BRIAN ROLLE in a starting rol(l)e would be awesome. every time i remember tyler moeller is still on the team i let out a little squeal because him and BRIAN ROLLE in the same backfield is just too awesome to comprehend. man i can’t wait for that.
I was excited about Moeller as well but we have this one guy named Ross Homan who is the epitome of awesomeness, ever heard of him?
:)
don’t get me wrong, i love ross homan and i never thought moeller would be a straight up LB. it’ll be interesting to see what happens when spitler graduates, but i imagine moeller will might rotate between strong safety, the “star” position, and OLB depending on the formation.
either way we are going to have a really, really fast defense next year
I just hope he’s still in football shape. Recovering from the kind of injury and surgery he had can be pretty tough.
Not to be negative, but it’s gonna tough for Moeller to get back into the rotation. Unless, he is as good as everyone thinks.
I get what you’re saying, but if nothing else, Moeller will come in as a blitz option on passing downs. His coverage skills are pretty solid as well, but he’s the best pure blitzer on this team.
moeller was having an awesome spring before he got punched and was definitely going to see a huge amount of playing time. with spitler gone next year, Tyler is going to have a lot of chances to stake his claim. he’s the perfect guy to have out there against the spread, and like Jason said, the dude is lethal on blitzes.
yes our defense is going to be sick but Ross Homan in my opinion is the most underated defensive player in the Big Ten
Bill Lynch has to get the John L Smith melt down award. Every week on the sidelines he was going absolutely ballistic!
Lynch gets my “Thad Matta” chewing gum award
Agreed, David Van
Lynch was an absolute nutcase during four games this season. By far my favorite B10 coach to watch. Hoosier football stinks but I’d watch any of their games simply because his wired ass was on the sideline.
I’ve never rooted more for bad officiating more than against IU this year.
i was convinced that this was the year that illinois would push for a big ten title.
FAIL.
Uhh, yeah. I gotta get in that boat with you.
Here, here. Though maybe I have an out living about 45 minutes from Champaign. Seriously, though, what a crap they took this year.
Somehow the Progressive Insurance girl manages to be ugly but also hot at the same time That’s hard to pull off!
She’s hot in a milf kinda way.
FAIL!
Pam is hotter.
buckeye20, is that you hiding under the anon tag???
Yes, but unintentional. After I sent it, I realized that my name was erased after cleaning up my computer. How you doin brutha?
I thought Jamaal Berry would play a big factor in the running game this year because of the zone-read and his outside speed.
FAIL
Gerry Dinardo was right there with you.
you thought that since when? since he had an injury from the beginning of the season?
you thought that since when, since he was injured from before the very first game of the season?
Thought it from when training camp opened before he even got injured.
I thought Brandon Saine was going to be a giant sack of negative yardage.
Everything turned out better than expected. :o)
Early Rose Bowl prediction: OSU vs TOSU? I think it’s going to be Oregon and I’m optomistic our D can hold them under 25. Just hope Bollman can put up 26+ for the win.
Ahhhh! How is it that there are still a few who believe the fiction that Bollman is actually the “offensive coordinator”? Are you kidding me?
Seeing any similarity between Vince Young’ success & TP’s late success with the option read.
I found myself cheering for Vince Young to do really well in that game hoping that somehow what Vince is doing will rub off on TP.
Well, to my own credit, I did not see Purdue failing as hard as a lot of people were predicting it to do…and despite their record, they really aren’t a bad team. That might be one of the only things I really called semi-correctly. I thought Michigan was going to reach 8 wins – grade F. Also on one of these threads I brought up how I thought Illinois was going to be a good team, and that it was a trap game for Ohio State. So, grade F there, too.
Still, I saw Ohio State as a 10-2 Rose Bowl team, but I thought they’d look far more explosive. I’m sort of split on that result. On one hand, I’m jacked as hell to see them in that game. It also sort of makes me uneasy going into bowl season because I’ve been predicting a rebound year for the Big Ten.
Hopefully we will be more explosive next year….We lose nothing on offense. Players get bigger, stronger, more experience & the O line will be healthier !
Maybe we open the playbook a little ? We did call a screen pass against Michigan.
I hope so. It’s not necessarily just calling a screen pass, either. It’s calling a screen pass when the guy across from you isn’t expecting a screen pass.
Great post. I wish everyone who did preseason picks did similar posts. Those USC lovers would have some ’splainin’ to do every December.
cut yourself some slack… at least you weren’t on the “Miami/ScUM is back!!!!” bandwagon or the even more embarrassing “Notre Lame is going to the BCS CHAMP GAME” wagon….
Does anybody realize we have Miami coming to our house next year? No, not that Miami in Ohio, that Miami in FLORIDA! That’s said team we beat for the title in 02. Miami might not be bells and whistles of a football team but that game is huge simply because of the 02 title game. I can’t wait for that game!
Bless me Father for I was wrong:
I thought the Bucks would go 10-2 but the second loss would be at PSU.
I thought Saine would not contribute once again> Thank you Brandon.
I thought Nate Williams would play a bigger role but I’m thankful that Cam and Thad Max had a great year. It’s good to know that Williams will be there next year if one leaves early.
I mistakingly thought that Stoneburner would play a huge role this year because of his height, speed and hands. Should have known better on that one.
I thought that Pryor would have progressed a lot more this year with his passing mechanics but apparently Tress follows NCAA rules about extra practice time.
Prediction:
National championships in both football and basketball within the next 3 years.
My gut feeling going into the season had the bucks about right (10-2, but with Penn St a loss), but overall league-wide I missed.
I thought that Michigan St, Ill and Penn St would all be better than they were this year. Basically, I thought the league was probably going to be better than it has been and that the bowl performance would improve.
The truth is, unfortunately, this might be the worst year yet for the conference as this is the weakest Bucks and Penn st teams at top in a few years. Plus, we are still sending two teams to the BCS, moving these lower teams up. So, my bowl improvement prediction is not lookin’ good right now.
Good news, no other conference really seems to have great depth …. we’ll see come bowl time
I correctly predicted that neither Boom nor Saine would rush for 1,000 yards, and that Pryor would be the team’s leading rusher (both in terms of yards gained, and number of attempts).
Duh.
I just want to say that I continue to be shocked at how under appreciated Beanie’s contributions were in his 3 years here. (Pittman too for that matter.)
I’m 98% sure if Beanie had stuck around for his senior year we would be sitting 12-0 and would definitely be in the running for a spot in the game that will be played in Pasadena on January 7th.
I agree Beanie was a difference maker! (when he wasn’t hurt) And I never understood why Pittman didn’t get more love from the fans…
It’s too bad Beanie wasn’t a year younger.
Until we get an offensive coaching staff that knows how to properly instruct Pryor, design routes that will work for him, he will not sniff a Heisman.
I’ve had enough of this Tressel/Bollman run offense. It’s time to see the offense hold up their end of the bargain.
Predictions are so hard, I think you did pretty well. I recently predicted why Oklahoma was going to lose at home and had to eat some crow. I appreciate you reviewing yourselves.
http://genuinechris.com/open-letter
For all of you all following this: is it time, for the sake of the big ten, to fire Rich Rod? I think so, and I think that Buckeye Fans need to help Michigan get rid of this jackass so they get on their feet and are no longer making our conference look horrible.