Wikipedia knows all.Two months back, reader Wil recommended we reawaken the tradition from Weekend Update's predecessor that was listing the games we featured's spreads as well as throwing up some random guestimates at how those puppies would actually play themselves out. Incomprehensibly to all, the results have been frighteningly not awful. Following last week's results, your honorary 11W gambling enabler is now 52-17-1 (~75%) for an abbreviated 2009 slate. After the first 8-0 week against the spread of the entire season, all that's left to wrap up this season is a perfectly symmetrical 0-8. Feast your eyes on championship weekend:
National Games
Thursday - #14 Oregon State at #7 Oregon (-10.5) - 9:00 p.m. (ESPN) The game imploring Buckeyes everywhere to call in sick Friday morning takes Oregon and Oregon State's traditional end of season "Civil War", and turns it into the opposite side of the Ohio State-Iowa Rose Bowl play-in bracket. In turning Oregon from laugh riot to laudable, Chip Kelly's turned the Ducks into quite the late season buzz team, leaving many tOSU faithful keeping their fingers crossed for a Ducks v. Bucks New Year's Day treat. The Beavers are no slouches in their own right, though certainly considerably more under the radar so to speak. Despite an impressive showing against the BCS' most consistent (and arguably best) conference this season, the Beavers are still virtual unknowns in many Buckeye fans' minds. The brothers Rodgers and venerable head coach Mike Riley lead a team into Eugene that despite being unranked, have finished each of the last 4 regular seasons in both Top 25s. While Oregon State will reward those bold enough to stake their children's college funds on their covering, expect the Ducks to emerge Rose Bowl parade bown, 34-29.Friday - MAC Championship Game: Ohio vs. Central Michigan (-10.5) - 8:00 p.m. (ESPN2) Our loyal readership of OU students and alum can finally feel the love; Frank Solich's Bobcats' trip to Ford Field garners our modest viewing recommendation and gets them their first play on this site since the 2008 too close for comfort contest. Standing between them and, well, a return trip to the very same venue for the Motor City Bowl as MAC Champions are Butch jones' 10-2 Chips. LeFevour is no stranger to these parts, as the senior gun slinger's accrued 2788 yards, 25 TDs to just 5 picks and a 71% completion percentage to boot to go along with 650 yards and 14 more TDs on the ground in the closing sonnet of a brilliant MAC career. The future pro-bound Tebow of the state that shall not be named should find a worthy adversary in Ohio's big play defense. The 'Cats forced 35 turnovers this season and enter the MAC Championship Game with a +14 turnover ratio. Despite a tremendous season from CMU, the Bobcats find a way to bring a title back to Athens, taking the MAC 35-31.
#5 Cincinnati at #13 Pittsburgh (-1.5) - 12:00 p.m. (ABC) Depending upon who you ask, this is either UC head man Brian Kelly's last, or far from last game as the head coca of the Bearcats. A rather distraction heavy week for Cincinnati lead them to Pittsburgh, where the 2-loss Fightin' Wandstaches wait eagerly. Much like the Thursday night Pac 10 contest, this one is a defacto conference championship and will determine the league's BCS representative. Vegas too clearly has inside information the most of us aren't privy to (or just really love them some well groomed mustaches) as Pitt inexplicably enters this one as one and a half point favorites. While this one has all the makings of the classic makings of an underwhelming Wandstet let down game, Bill Stull's had far too great of a season for the Panthers to let his season end with the kind of performance he put up in Morgantown last weekend. As per usual, Vegas is onto something: Pitt (you read that right) wins this bad boy 35-25.
SEC Championship Game: #1 Florida vs. #2 Alabama (+5) - 4:00 p.m. (CBS) It takes a real man of inspiration to be able to make fun of two teams in a single statement, but Tennessee head coach Lane Kiffin did just that earlier in the week simply stating "Florida has better players, but Alabama has better coaches." Duly noted, sir. While an unwatchable 6-3 win by either team would arguably be the Pareto optimal outcome for this one, any result where by which the Tebow child is uninspired will be a win for selfish Buckeye fans everywhere hoping the keep Archie's stature as two time Heisman trophy hoister as an individual historic occurrence. I went the entirety of the season thinking this game was Alabama's to lose, though given the way the Gators looked the last 2 weekends, I'll be awfully hard pressed to concede they drop this one. That being said I'm going against all instinct and assuming the last 3 Gator opponents were conveniently their 3 worst defensively, and giving Bama this one, 16-10. Steve Addazio, eat your heart out.
ACC Championship Game: #10 Georgia Tech vs. #25 Clemson (EVEN) - 8:00 p.m. (ESPN) If the above doesn't clear up exactly what Coach Paul Johnson brings to the table, tune in for his awesome off with Clemson young gun Dabo Swinney. Georgia Tech won a zany come from behind affair earlier in the season, and before being completely out physicaled for the entirety of an evening by Georgia last weekend, were the hands down favorites in this one. After Clemson also did us no favors laying an egg to the Gamecocks (even after a C.J. Spiller opening kickoff return for a touchdown), we're looking at just the second pick 'em of the games we've profiled all season (and the second in as many weeks). In situations of uncertainty and relative parity, there's no other choice except to default to the oracle that is Phil Steele. His outcome : 1010110101010101011011000001010101010101. Or in our language: Clemson 31 - GT 24.
Big XII Championship Game: #3 Texas vs. #23 Nebraska (+13) - 8:00 p.m. (ABC) The most lopsided on paper prompts us to remind you of Big XII Championship Games past: unranked Texas shocked then #3 ranked 2-time defending champion Nebraska 37-27 in the inaugural Big XII Championship Game in 2003. 1998 saw 10th ranked Texas A&M keep upstart #2 Kansas State from their first ever title game berth, winning 36-33 in 2 OT in a truly all-time classic. 2001 brought more high drama as championship bound with a win #3 Texas couldn't overcome 4 Chris Simms turnovers losing to #9 Colorado 39-37, also in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. And who can forget 2003's completely illogical 35-7 dismantling of season long #1 Oklahoma by #15 K-State. So factoring in all the dumb small sample size superstitions again we have no AP #3 ranked teams having ever won a Big 12 Championship Game, the Longhorns 0-1 in DFW Big XII title games, and the Horns just 1-3 in Big XII title games all-time. Easy Nebraska victory? If only Zac Lee and the Huskers weren't rolling into town with the 92nd ranked offense in the FBS. Colt McCoy's final in-state game as Texas' quarterback ends the way so many of his NCAA leading 44 wins do, with another Texas W. Horns take it 24-13.
Big Ten Games:
Fresno State at Illinois (EVEN) - 12:30 p.m. (Big Ten Network) The Big Ten's still playing games? I'm as shocked as you are, and it can't bode well for Zooksters to be facing A PICK 'EM game against 3rd place in the WAC Fresno State. Pat Hill's 7-4 Bulldogs roll into Champagne with Illinois desperately seeking to end the season 4-8. The Bulldogs did go into Madison and take Wisconsin to OT earlier in the year, plus played Cincinnati tough falling just 28-20 in the nasty 'Nati. In fact, it's difficult not to like the Bulldogs given their only other losses were to Boise State and WAC 2nd place Nevada. Despite every fiber in my being wanting the Big Ten to represent in this one, it's hard not to take the (gulp) better team. Fresno ends the Illini's season rocket launcher style: 34-13.Wisconsin at Hawaii (+11.5) - 11:30 p.m. (ESPN2) The Badgers get a jump start on bowling, playing a 13th game (and all intents and purposes pre-bowl) against Greg McMacklin's Warriors. In a potentially must win to save his job game for McMacklin, the Rainbows' still potent offensive attack will have to jump out to an early advantage if they want to hang with the superior athleticism the Badgers bring to the table. With superstud sophomore running back John Clay already announcing he'll be back next season, the Badgers go into this one with few questions other than what will the final margin of victory be. Hawaii goes down (though no word whether or not Wisconsin does any kind of pre-game dance) as the Badgers crush all in sight, 45-21.
Comments
Everyone said Pitt was going to crush Cincinnati last year. Bearcats won by a TD as they were able to pin McCoy down for most of the game. Everyone's been saying Cincinnati is going to fall, and week after week they show up and look a handful of steps better than whomever they play. They were supposed to lose to USF, UConn, WVU, maybe even a surging Illinois, now to Pitt. The team is for real, and it's going to be a good game. If Cincy loses by 10, I'll be shocked.
I can't believe the Civil War is a 10 point spread. Cannot believe it. The two teams are actually evenly matched. It'll be a shootout, and Oregon State is going to bring some serious fireworks.
SEC Championship game - who gives a shit?
CBS and ESPN care a lot about the SEC game. Maybe they should just cancel it or rename it to the BCS Champ Game instead.
i am going out on a limb and taking the cornhuskers for the win in that big xii championship game. there is always a crazy upset this time of year and the combo of soft schedule texas and the suh god leads me to backing the buckeye lead 'huskers (the man who loved the hit in this famous youtube clip coaches Suh, i do not like Colt's chances - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...).
oops
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Don't count on Pitt to win any big game, they should've won last week and cost me money in Vegas. As a Bear's fan that had to suffer through the 6 years Wannstache was there, I don't know if he has ever won a big game in his life. Take the Bearcats!
I don't really think Cincinnati is for real anymore than I think Boise State is. I don't think they are a bad team, and I applaud them for winning all their games, but they have NO DEFENSE. I don't care how many points they have put up on bad teams. They have not really played anyone with a good defense much less a great one, and they've let teams who aren't good like Illinois and UCONN put up a lot of points. I just don't see UC being a top 5 team. Would I be shocked if they beat Pitt? No not at all. Would it shock me if Pitt beat them by 10? Not really.
At least your not bitter or anything
Well like Paul Johnson, the BCS has the largest set of balls that could get a good kickin in the goodies this weekend if Nebraska and Bama win their games and Cincy loses and oh man who knows what else. Total freakin chaos if this happens this weekend!
Good Shizzy........Urban wants to coach at tOSU. He'll be here in 5 years or less when the Vest has had enough.
More like the BCS Chump Game
What makes you so sure Tressel will be gone in 5 years or less? Unless he gets hit with a heart attack or something tragic. He has a great team coming back, has had great recruting, isn't that old. I can't imagine he's going to be gone in 5 years.
JPT is 56. There are probably another 10 years in him before he starts toward the exits. Especially if he brings in another title in either of the next 2 seasons.
Just a feeling. He doesn't seem like a guy that wants to coach forever. 60 is a nice round number.
Let's put some things in perspective. In this day in age with the new era of offenses, Tressel somewhat falls behind in that category due to his style of play. Now we do come up with winning seasons and a lot of 10-2 seasons and what not but I think Tress is gonna need to get back to winning big games and with that comes another title. Like many of us, I too wish the offensive coaching of that side of the ball could use some shakin up. If I were Tress I would be going after Brian Kelly like crazy and giving him the whole offense so it would set up for a title run and huge promotion to HC when Tress retires. Just look how Kelly is now threatening OSU at getting recruits we go after. I stand behind Tress cuz he is a good man and wins games but I think this upcoming bowl game will be a defining moment whether Tress can go out as the HC at OSU (no matter when he does) and be thought of as the man who could find a way to win the tough games.
go after Brian Kelly? Do you really think he would take a job as Offensive coordinator at any school over head coach at cinci or ND? if you say yes you are on something, that's a step backwards.
Is it a step backwards if you were guaranteed to be the HC in 2 years?
It won't happen so we shouldn't even discuss it. tOSU will never hire someone away from Cincinnati.
There is no way in hell Brian Kelly is going to be anyone's Offensive Coordinator unless it's an NFL team that is going to pay him more as an OC than an head coach at UC. Kelly won't be going to Notre Dame either though. I would look for him to fill the position at Oklahoma or Florida when one of their coaches leave for Notre Dame. I don't care if they say they aren't interested. They are listenning. Besides, this team has had some creative offense under Tressel. The weapons are there, they just have to learn how to play. That's why I say the team will be much more agressive on offense in the Rose Bowl.
"guarantees" aren't worth much these days. It still doesn't make sense to take an assistant coaching position when other high profile programs want you to run the ship for them.
Wow. First of all, Cincinnati has certainly played a tougher schedule from beginning to end than Boise State. It could turn out that Oregon and Oregon State really aren't that different, so you could probably push their big nonconference games. However, the Big East and the WAC do not compare well at all in terms of difficulty, and by that I mean the WAC is a true joke and the Big East is far better than people gave it credit for at the season's outset. So I don't necessarily agree that UC hasn't played anyone. Even using your examples, Illinois and UConn have gotten better over the last half of the year than they were in the first half.
Point of extreme interest: If you look at the top 10 teams in the country, Cincinnati is the only BCS team that has played, and won, a nonconference game against a BCS team that will finish top-2 in their conference. That's pretty stunning, if you ask me, considering how "heavily" we debate those nonconference schedule rankings.
Civil War Game Haiku.
Beavers against Ducks.
To play in the Grand-Daddy.
The state smells like pot.
ya dig.
Ohhh I dig
I think giving up over 40 to Uconn, 37 to Illinois and it would've been 50 if Juice Williams could hit receivers who were open by 25 yards is more telling. Who in the Big East was that great? South Florida was extremely over rated, West Virginia is solid but certainly not great. I just can't see UC beating a team with a really good defense.
today was inappropriate haiku day on BBM. good times.
Brian Kelly could just be the flavor of the month though. Sure his team has a great offense, but remember the last Big East coach who was an offensive whiz, that everyone said would be successful where ever he went. Ask Michigan how that hire has gone.
Absolutely...you don't spend your life working for one job, then leave it soon after. Tress will take us into the 2020 season at least.
Teams Cincinnati faced, and their respective ranking in the NCAA Total Defense.
Rutgers - 20th
SE Mo St - 1-AA school
Oreg State - 40th
Fresno St - 90th
Miami (OH) - 71st
S. Fla - 30th
Louisville - 67th
Syracuse - 37th
U Conn - 75th
West Va - 39th
Illinois - 93rd
The average ranking of the defenses they've faced all year is 56th.
That means they played 3-9 Virginia 11 times this year.
I'm really not impressed.
ha, virginia. i like the conclusions you're jumping to.
That's the thing, last year they had great offensive numbers too, then they played Va Tech who was pretty good but not top 5 last year. Again, I think they are a good team, just not top 5.
we have heard over and over again that we expect more aggressiveness in this or that game ... never happens, never will IMO
So you don't believe that under Tressel, they have ever played aggressive on offense?
2005 fiesta bowl/2006 was a lame offense, you're right.
Right now I can't see Brian Kelly taking the ND job or any other job because that big time school just isn't there. Its a big position if he became the OC at OSU and Tress handed him the play book and obviously a set-up for the HC job soon. Its more of an easier said than done and Tress I think only has probably 4-5 years left at OSU in him.
Of course he has played aggressive here and there. He was even aggressive for most of an entire year it seemed (2006). But, over his entire tenure he has tended to focus on no turnovers rather than scoring points (strange philosophy considering the amount of NFL talent on our offenses). his is a solid approach when you play teams that stink, not so much when you play good teams, hence the fact we haven't defeated a really good team in years
Over his tenure though, he's had 1 really really good QB. Krenzel was not a bad QB, but Troy was the only one he had that he could trust to take chances with. Boeckman wasn't that good folks. Boeckman worried me even when the team was rolling, he left passes short all the time. Pryor has started getting the offense down, the line has played great lately, and the young WR's are starting to come through. This offense will be much different next year, and I think even in the bowl game.
The only reason I can see him leaving is either Illness, or he gets tired of people calling for his head because they go 10-2 and supposedly can't win a big game. I get the impression that even an undefeated year with another championship people would still be bitching if they didn't put up 50 points a game. I don't understand why people think he's just going to up and walk away from his dream job, that happens to be one of th top 5 programs in college football since he took over. The program is in great shape and the recruiting is as good as it has ever been.
If you look at any given schedule, I'm willing to bet my life savings that the opposing defense's average rank is going to be at or around 50th, plus or minus 5.
Fact of the matter that you haven't argued is that Cincinnati played, and beat, the (arguable) best conference's #2 team at their house 2500 miles away. No other BCS team in the top-10 beat a BCS conference's #1 or #2 team.