(Presenting the first annual 11W House Odds for the upcoming football season. Print these off and take them to your nearest book -- they will surely honor them.)
Pryor Passes for at Least 2,000 Yards: 2-1
TP finished a sometimes bumpy freshman campaign with a little over 1,300 yards in the air. When you look at just the games he started (and we're counting the Fiesta Bowl though Boeckman technically started that outing), he was good about 122 yards per game. Assuming he has an injury-free sophomore season, he'll get 13 games and just matching the numbers from '08 puts him around 1,600 yards.
The 400 remaining yards are certainly within reach, especially if Pryor makes the kind of leaps we're expecting this year. However, achieving the mark isn't a given. Although the leading passer on the team has only failed to crack 2,000 yards three times in the past decade, Smith only had 2,282 yards as a junior and Krenzel turned in seasons of 2,110 and 2,040 as a junior and senior.
Boom Cracks 1,000 on the Ground: 4-3
Are you appropriately excited for what this man is goingto do this season?
If you're the starting running back at Ohio State, a 1,000 yard season is never out of the question. It's the home of Archie, Eddie and Beanie and this staff finds nothing more arousing than seeing a back bust through a two-lane hole and into daylight. Unfortunately, it's not automatic -- twice in the Tressel era, in 2003 and 2004, the Buckeyes did not have a back top 1,000 yards. Lydell Ross led the team with 826 in '03 and then followed it up with just 475 the following season. Thank you, Maurice.
While Boom will definitely get the bulk of the handoffs this season and his rumored terrorizing of the weights at WHAC bodes well for him, Pryor and Saine will eat into his carries a bit. In the end, though, we like his chances.
Ray Small Plays in Every Game: 4-1
We love Ray around these parts, but he's in summer school fighting for eligibility. Still, he can't be dumb enough to kiss a contract season goodbye, can he? We have a hunch Small gets eligible, but his frequent stays in the doghouse have us too concerned to imagine he'll be in good standing for every game this season.
Thaddeus Gibson Records 10 or More Sacks: 2-1
Despite Gibson's abilities and all thoughts we have of him single-handedly destroying other teams, getting double digits in sacks is a difficult thing to do. Only six players have done it and their names are: Simmons, Smith, Finkes, Vrabel, Katzenmoyer and Gholston. Elite company. Making matters more difficult is the fact that Gibson will see twice as many double-teams as he saw last year.
Still, the prospect of Gibson, the beast, just a bit more seasoned is delightful and if Gholston can get 14, surely Thad can make a run at 10. Especially when you consider he had nine sacks last season. We're just worried the sacks will be a little more evenly distributed this year as opposed to when Vern was a one-man show.
A Linebacker Tops 100 Tackles: 2-1
A Buckeye linebacker has topped 100 tackles in each of the past seven seasons, but six of those seasons belonged to AJ Hawk and James Laurinitis (the seventh, Matt Wilhelm and his 121 tackles in '02). So... if you're an NFL-bound linebacker, patrolling the middle of the Buckeye defense, your odds are great. We're just not so sure Spitler, the likely MLB, is NFL-bound.
Rolle may have a shot at 100 if he gets enough playing time as spring practice showcased his nose for the ball. Still, that's tough to do from the outside. Moeller also ends up near every pile, so maybe he has a chance, but how many first downs against running teams will he be on the field for? Homan and other linebackers find themselves in a similar situation as Hines will eat into their snaps, especially against the pass-happy teams.
Other Odds
- Pryor Has a 300 Yard Game: 5-1
- A Receiver Tops 1,000 Yards: 5-2
- A Defensive Back Tops Five Interceptions: 10-1
- The Defense Holds USC to Under 100 Yards Rushing: 4-1
- A Kicker Kicks a 50+ Yard Field Goal: 2-1
- Tressel Rocks a Visor: 500-1
- The Buckeyes Pass on First Down More Often Than They Run: 750-1
Comments
The Buckeyes Pass on First Down More Often Than They Run: 750-1
That is rather generous odds my friend....
haha i laughed when i read that one.
The Thad one needs to be changed to, "Thaddeus Gibson destroys an offensive line 10 or more times."
Herron will definitely get more than 1000 yards, I think he's going to be awesome.
One thing helping Boom is that besides Marcus Williams, the only third options are true freshmen and one hasnt exactly gotten off to a good start. Any word on what disciplinary actions ,if any, will be taken on Berry?
In the spirit of razzle dazzle offense, Id like to know the odds of Joe B. and LIC being in on the same play. We may need it in the USC game.
and another didn't even get off to a start...
"In the spirit of razzle dazzle offense, Id like to know the odds of Joe B. and LIC being in on the same play. We may need it in the USC game"
I was thinking along the same lines iball, bringing in Joey and his rocket arm for some gimmic plays, lining up LiC in a bunch formation and having him motion to the single receiver side would completely shift the SC Defense and leave Posey or Sanzenbacher in 1 on 1 coverage to the strong side. In theory of course....
By the way...NCAA '10 can't come out soon enough
tomorrow, right?
Did Brandon Saine transfer or something? I think you've forgotten about him when you say "besides Marcus Williams, the only third options are true freshmen and one hasnt exactly gotten off to a good start."
I actually think that Saine getting a decent number of carries will prevent Boom from hitting 1,000.
This could be true as well. I really like Saine, and his freshman year he was great coming out of the backfield and making big catches. That's my hope for him this year is he gives them that extra weapon. That really opens things up so much when you have a RB who can catch.
Anyone interested in an online dynasty?
If you read the comment, I said "THIRD" option, meaning if Saine were to go down again, heaven forbid.
i figured Jason assumed Saine to be the second option, thus going straight to the third, i don't know
sorry, i meant iball, not Jason, lol
When are we sending in our resume's for the next OC opoening, ski? Id love to see LIC get a few thrown his way, I dont think many DB's can cover him one on one.
"Id like to know the odds of Joe B. and LIC being in on the same play."
As much as I would love to take the field and be in the huddle with LiC, I'm afraid my eligibility was used up back in 1987. ;-)
I'm excited to see if they finally use the pony formation for that three-headed monster backfield of Pryor, Boom, and Saine. Defenses would have a really hard time keying on just one of them. But that would mean our O-line needs to do their job, which probably wont happen.
I would do the online dynasty. I have PS3 though. I think I am the only one in America that has one now. I will tell you this though, I dominated last year with the Bucks using Texas Tech's playbook and yes, the 3-3-5! :)
I would do the online dynasty. I have PS3 though. I think I am the only one in America that has one now. I will tell you this though, I dominated last year with the Bucks using Texas Tech’s playbook and yes, the 3-3-5! :)
Speaking of throwing off the SC defense.....
I would love for us to come up with all sorts of game plans to confuse and really trick the SC defense. You know they are gonna key on Pryor's running ability and if they shut that down then its either pass or run the ball with Boom or Saine. It will make things easier on Pryor if Tress and Bollman come up with formations to get Petey's defense scratchin their heads. I'd hate to see Pryor get sucked in a situation where the defense confuses him and he makes a bad throw or something.
Here's an interesting article, totally unrelated to this thread but with the post last week that had a lot of soccer talk, combined with SEC always bashing the Big 10, this is an interesting read. Especially, his comparison for Ohio State which has no basis whatsoever. http://www.dawgsports.com/2009...
They also almost never voluntarily schedule a game outside their home state.
Good to know we can still count on SEC fans to be the biggest hypocrites on the planet.
I read your post correctly the first time--it just doesn't make any sense, IMO. You say that one thing helping Boom get his yards this season is that there isn't a great third stringer. You totally ignore the fact that the person most likely to take away carries (and hence yards) from Boom is the second stringer (i.e., Saine).
That would have been great last year as well. Beanie, Boom, Pryor
Like any other big game, the USCum game is going to be won or lost in the trenches, not by trick plays. The young Bucks are going to have to take that first "step into manhood", kick some serious ass and not make mistakes.
Especially a UGA fan. The trip out to ASU last season was the first time they went west of the Mississippi for a regular season game since 1960. In ten years,'98-'07, UGA only traveled a total of 358 miles.
The kicker to me is that they compared them to team USA Soccer, which has had no real success in Soccer, where Ohio State is a type 5 all time program. I mean that's fine if you don't think they play a tough schedule, which I think that stepping out of conference and playing USC and Texas, and Miami and Oklahoma which are coming up in the next few years, is a bigger step than playing ASU and Oklahoma State. I also don't care if you don't like the program, but don't just write them off. I mean 40 years ago Ohio State was good, and they are good today and it's not because they played a week schedule since the 60's. I mean he mentions that Georgia has stumbled and that they have layed egges as well, but to just say Ohio State gets press because they are in a populous state that has a lot of media outlets is stupid. Team USA soccer, isn't mentioned in the top tier of the world. I don't think when they set the odds for the World Cup, USA is going to be one of the top 5 or 6 teams, where every year Ohio State starts off up there.
I agree RBuck. No need for trick plays or any attempts at confusing their DEF. The USC DEF was as good as it will ever be last year and if you watched the Oregaon State game, a way undersized Jacquizz Rodgers ran it straight at them play after play with great success. There's no reason to fear them. We match up with them talent for talent. What we need is a well-executed game plan and to play mistake-free ball.
I think you are reading way to far into this. I mean the guy is comparing national soccer teams to college football.
that is the weirdest criticism of OSU i've seen from various SEC fans, especially since most of their teams have absolutely terrible OOC schedules
i actually agree with this, it's pretty hard to get worked up over a silly post that makes almost no sense on any level
SEC, wouldn't you agree GA us by far the most underacheiving team in your confrence as far as "living up to the hype"?
I agree, but at the same time it's annoying to read stuff like this all the time. I guess it combines 2 things I hate more than anything Soccer and the SEC.
Buckeye,
When Tressel recognizes effective players, he tries to use them, correct? Then if there is one less horse in the stable, simple math tells you Boom's carries should take less of a hit.
Mike, RBuck, and RunTell Matt,
I respect your opinions but the only thing I agree with is that we must play mistake free football. Other than that, we are at a talent disadvantage and need to confuse the SC defense by not sticking to trends. Running on first and second down, then trying to pass on a third and seven is not going to win us the game.
Different looks on offense is EXACTLY why the Fiesta bowl was so close. Pryor is great, but we were WAY overmatched at the QB position in that game. Simply handing off to Beanie would have gotten us killed. Thats why the man who most of you agree is one of the smartest coaches in CFB, chose to implement a 2 QB system.
SC beat us with straight up, gimmick free football because they were a better team last year, plain and simple. This type of stubborn thinking is NOT what this team needs.
When you read Dawg Sports, you ride with Osama.
Please explain how you figure we are at a talent disadvantage. Do you think that better atheletes, let alone football players, are miraculously born on the West Coast?
Texas could have been even closer if we had any sort of a red zone defense. Beanie ran all over them in the first half.
Replace defense with offense :)
lolstrawmen
Peruse this fall's two-deep. Of the top 45, only four -- offensive linemen Charles Brown and Nick Howell and safeties Josh Pinkard and Drew McAllister -- were rated as three-star recruits; literally everyone else at the top of the rotation at every position, even fullback, was a four or five-star guy. There is a very high probability that every single player who plays a meaningful down on defense (with the exception of Pinkard, an injury-plagued sixth-year senior with a likely pro future) was ranked by Rivals among the top 250 players in his class regardless of position, and most were in the top 100.
http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/f...
RunTellMatt: There is no shame whatsoever in having a talent disadvantage against USC. Everyone does.
"dawg sports"? georgia fans can read? hence, they spell 'dog' as 'dawg'.
Totally off topic but did anyone else see this headline and think it was about a Wisconsin fan?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_...
I think saine will see more carries this year then boom. He is healthy and is a burner with power. I'm not saying I don't like boom he runs hard but Saine has a different gear like we haven't seen since Robert Smith was at Ohio State. Saine could have a huge year both catching and running out of the backfield.
Another player that should make this offense one of the best in the country is Stoneburner. He is an athletic tight end at 240lbs and no linebacker or safety not in the NFL could cover him. This team has a chance to be special.
I don't feel like I'm going out on a limb by saying they could run the table.
TP is a winner. He has won at every level. Bottom line is if he improves the buckeyes will be not good but great. As the spring game showed he has learn more of the offense.
The d will be lights out not only because of the increase in speed but they should be playing with a lead the majority of games. That will spell speed rush with teams having to pass more than run. The combination of Thad on one end and L. wilson on the other would be good enough for most NFL teams. Couple that with the fact both safties return and we should see lots of easy picks.
JMO but whatever I'll be pumped to see this team hit the field. They are hungry and hopefully focused.
RunTellMatt,
We do not have AS MUCH talent as USC, period. As far as where good athletes come from, I would say all over the USA and all over the USA is where USC recruits.
I absolutely guarantee Tressel will break trends all night in the USC game.
the only way saine has more carries than boom this year is if herron gets injured. boom is the starter, deal with it you big babies
I'm down for online dynasty. I assume we're talking about xbox 360?
Purely subjective. However, if you want to use scouting statistics, let me ask you, who has the #1 recruiting class for 2009 according to scout.com? Here's the answer, and it's not USC who is at 9:
http://recruiting.scout.com/a....
As far as 2010, scouting isn't finished.
By the way, if you look at USC's roster, 90% of their team is from the state of CA. In fact, you can count on one hand the number of guys they have recruited East of the Rockies.
Jeez, hostility much? One would think you were best buddies with Boom or something. Nobody is saying Boom is bad, nor is anyone whining about who's starting, people are just guessing at what will happen.
Yes, Boom looks like the starter, but Saine has been making progress, too, and Tressel doesn't seem to be afraid to switch starters as the year goes on. I'm sure everyone here hopes they both make a lot of progress and give us some serious threats in the backfield, two is better than one!
I hope you guys are right about Saine but I've yet to see any elusiveness - healthy or not - that makes me think he will be a consistent force and gamechanger. He seems to be "straight line fast" instead of elusive, ie the whole track guy in shoulder pads comparison. Since he's healthy, now is the time for him to put up or shut up because the unrealized hype (to this point) is at a fever pitch.
Excuses, excuses Joe, your team needs you, man.
Also, subjective. Thats one of 3 services, one of which the Buckeyes.
Look, I am S&G to the bone, and I cry an absolute river every time we come up short. Maybe three tough losses on the big stage has something to do with it, but subjectivity helps to put things in perspective. I know we can beat SC, and I wish we were good enough to line up and cram the effin ball down their effin throats. But the fact is that we can't, and we won't. When two teams of equal ability face off, deception plays a big role in the outcome. Thats not admitting you're weak, it's part of the game. Im sure JT would tell you the same thing, in private, lol.
I must agree with Bup,
Im saying Boom is the most likely Buckeye to be a Heisman darkhorse this year, LIC or not!
Its easy for LIC to attract attention, he's a mobile QB for Pete's sake, he's essentially 2 positions in one, and he caught a TD in a BCS bowl!
Boom played in the shadow of a pre-season Heisman candidate and even when the Beanster was inj'd, Boom was still in the shadows. One could even argue Boom has more to prove and could end up with a better career than Beanie. Beanie largely underachieved, considering the hype surrounding him since the day he arrived in C'Bus.
Boom is a total package guy, and seems much more durable than Beanie. Go AZ Cardinals!
You're right Chris,
I love Saine but he was not an in-between the tackles guy even in high school, doesn't mean he can't be extremely effective though. if he develops an inside running game, he could find himself going very high in the draft.
I dont' think the hype came from nothing though. I realize that it was only a couple of games, but he looked really sharp before the knee got scoped his freshman year. He also made a pretty nice reception in the national champioship game against LSU. I think he can be a really good and important player for this team, especially since he can catch the ball out of the backfield. That to me is a huge aspect of his game.
Also, with a good tight end that can run and catch that's another option. I think the receivers are going to be solid too, with or w/out Small. I'll be honest, I've pretty much written him off and anything they get out of him will just be that much better. I have to agree with someone earlier when they said this offense could be nasty.
I think you make a great about Saine. His effectiveness could be largely influenced not only by health but by what plays are called allowing him to showcase his strengths.
Hey iball:
Giving a team different looks and bucking trends are not what I consider "trick plays". Neither is lining up LiC , who happens to be 6'6'', runs a 4.4 and is probably the best athlete and skilled player you have, in the slot and throwing to him in the end zone a trick play.
Trick plays are high risk, high reward. ie: fake punts and field goals, double reverses, fumblerooskies etc.
I totally agree that USC was a helluva lot better than us last year. This year will be a lot better match-up talent wise.
Georgia hasn't lived up to any hype yet. Last year was pathetic and I knew they weren't the top team in the country.
But yet, they talk more trash than any other SEC fanbase does. Funny, you rarely see Gator and LSU fans talk on here as much as "Dawg" fans do.
SEC, nobody here cares about your opinions on GA.
i'm not really testy about boom and saine, i just think it's silly that people still are all about saine simply because he was such a big recruit despite him doing literally nothing in the last year and a half.
also i can't wait for all the saineiacs to come out of the woodwork when boom has his first bad game, that's going to be AMAZING ly irritating
Not once have I ever used the words "trick plays". But sorry, yes, lining your starting QB up as a wideout is a gadget play, not a trick play, and once again I've never advocated "trick plays".
If you're gonna put me in my place, at least make it over something I actually said. Go Bucks!
Exactly, he just isn't Beanie Wells.
He was 6'1 210 outta HS, and single handedly carried his team to a state title. But he made his plays in open space, never up the middle. I just hope we find a way to use him to his potential. Anyone with that combo of size/speed should be a force.
He'll rock the visor and parlay it with bermuda shorts before THAT happens.
I agree with you on that as well, but he doesn't need to be tough up the middle because that's what Boom is. I think these 2 are an awesome 1-2 punch, and we can look forward to them in the backfield this season and next season. I just cant stress enough how important I believe it is to have a guy like Saine who can catch and run out of the backfield. Also, he can go out for more than dump off passes as he showed in the LSU game. You're right, he's not Beanie Wells, but I think he can have a very very productive season this year. I also think Boom is going to be great for them, he is quick and tough. This offense is going to pick up a lot of yards this year.
Obviously, when a guy like Beanie goes down, your team is hurting, but other than 1 game, which was against USC, Boom was really good. I think he's going to be awesome again, but I do believe that Saine is going to be really good, and not just because he was a high rated recruit. I base it off of what he was able to do and how he looked before the knee was scoped. I realize that was just a few games, but I think he looked really good. That's not to say I believe he's 10 times better than Boom, or that I don't think Boom is going to be great. But can't we hope to be happy if both of them are awesome. It's a great problem to have when 2 running backs are eating up chunks of yards. I don't know that these 2 will be first round NFL picks, but I believe that both of them are going to be very good running back together in the same backfield.
As for the odds, I absolutely believe Boom will get 1000 yards this year, but if he has 950 and Saine has 900 that's fine w/me too lol.
Boom had 11 carries for 51 yards against SC. He was the best part of our offense in that game.
I agree (I'm the anonymous one who replied to bup, sorry 'bout the anonymity) that people get a little too worked up about Saine, he just has (had?) such great potential, if only he could figure out how to make people miss... It's hard not to hold out hope that he turns into the stud he was supposed to be.
Don't get me wrong - I LOVE Boom. As a fellow person-who-was-too-skinny-to-seek-out-contact-but-did-it-anyway, I love the way he slams into much bigger guys to get those extra couple of yards, and I was definitely stoked to see him take the #2 spot last season. I just want them BOTH to be awesome, and if one of them turns out to be amazing, well, I'll probably be more of a fan of that one than the other (but they're both Buckeyes, so you gotta like 'em both).
Bottom line.
I want OSU to kick the living $*#@ out of USC come september.
Also, Sam...Pryor accounted for ~95 yards, too...so those two accounted for 75% of our offensive production that day. Hopefully a year later makes them a year better.