Steele on Draft Day Hangovers
The bad news: the Buckeyes top Phil Steele’s list of teams suffering NFL draft hangovers with 32 points. Which leads to:
Over the last 12 years teams that earned more points than the previous year and accumulated….
12 or more points – Weaker or same record 164 of 216 (75.9%)
24 or more points – Weaker or same record 47 of 55 (85.4%)
35 or more points – Weaker record 13 of 15 (86.7%)
The good news? Exceptions to the above trends sometimes manage to win MNCs:
One thing I pointed out in past years is that the National Champ does have a good shot at appearing on these lists. In the past 12 years there have been 13 National Champs (LSU and USC were co-champs in ‘03) with 11 of the 13 having earned 12 or more points in the draft the previous year.
http://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/June09/DBJune5.html
it looks like OSU is second to USC’s 45
I knew someone would point that out. :)
The reason USC is not on the list is (amazingly) the 45 represent less points than they scored last year.
ok, makes sense. I wasn’t sure if i was reading it wrong or what, he never really explains what the numbers mean or anything, just kinda throws them out there.
Yeah, I should have pointed it out in the post. Just Steele being Steele, which is to say firing out a million football thoughts and facts a second.
This is one of those stat breakdowns that just doesn’t hold weight to me. It doesn’t account for strength of schedule between years or recruiting. I bet you could come up with a recruiting stat that says if a team has 3 top 10 recruiting classes in a row, they only average 0-2 loss the next year. Or teams that have 7 home games win at least 9 games a year etc.
Yeah, this is confusing as all hell.
Bucks will be good. Maybe not national champs good, but Pryor and company will score points. It’s a good, fresh start for the Scarlet and Gray – I’m enjoying it.