The transition north hasn't been a cakewalk thus far for James Franklin.
After becoming the latest young coach to leave a middle-of-the-pack FBS school in Vanderbilt to take his "dream job," the Pennsylvania native looked to have some decent parts to keep re-building the Penn State football program after former head coach, Bill O'Brien left for the NFL.
Under O'Brien, the Nittany Lions overcame severe scholarship limitations to finish with a 15-9 record in both seasons under his leadership. Not only had O'Brien left Franklin with a program that had stayed above water after one of the worst scandals in NCAA history, but with one of the most coveted pieces a coach could want: a five-star quarterback.
Christian Hackenberg has everything you'd want from a pocket passer. The 6'4" sophomore from Virginia possesses gets pro scouts all hot and bothered by mixing good size, decent athleticism, and most importantly, a big, accurate arm. After shattering nearly every PSU freshman passing record in 2013, many expected him to be considered for many national awards this fall, and eventually break the streak of the Big Ten not having a quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft since former Nittany Lion, Kerry Collins did so in 1995.
But not all has gone to plan for Franklin, Hackenberg, and company. After starting off 4-0, the Lions have dropped two straight to Northwestern and Michigan, scoring only one touchdown in eight quarters. The defense has done its best, holding opponents to only 15 points-per-game, thanks mostly to the nation's top run defense. But it appears that although they've been able to secure top-level talent like Hackenberg and five-star tight end, Adam Breneman over the past few years, the sanctions appear to have really hurt the overall depth of the Penn State roster.
Offense
The 2014 Penn State offense revolves around Hackenberg, even more so than most teams that feature a talented signal-caller. But unlike a team like Oregon with Marcus Mariotta, or Florida State with Jameis Winston that surrounds their QB with talent at every position, the Nittany Lions are forced to rely on Hackenberg, simply out of necessity.
Senior running backs Bill Belton (#1) and Zach Zwinak (#28) may lead the nation in in alliteration, but the pair have had trouble making much impact on the field. Through six games, the Nittany Lions are averaging under 3 yards-per-carry, and rank in the bottom ten of rushing offenses nationally. Sophomore Akeel Lynch (#22) has begun to see the ball more, although he hasn't made much of an impact outside of victories against Akron and UMASS.
When they do run the ball, the Nittany Lions call typical, pro-style concepts such as the inside and outside zones, as well as Power-O and the occasional counter-trey. But although Franklin brought well-respected offensive line coach, Herb Hand with him from Vanderbilt, the Nittany Lions have had a great deal of trouble executing in the run game.
On this simple inside zone-split play against Michigan, left guard Brendan Mahon (#70) and center Angelo Mangiro (#66) have already both been beaten almost immediately by Wolverines at the moment Belton is receiving the handoff.
Belton does an admirable job getting back to the line, barely keeping the offense from going backwards. Such failures have been commonplace all year long for the Nittany Lions, forcing Franklin and offensive coordinator, John Donovan to lean more heavily on Hackenberg and the passing game.
After losing star receiver, Allen Robinson to the NFL last spring, many expected Hackenberg to rely more on talented tight ends Jesse James (#18), Brenamen, and freshman Mike Gesicki (#80) to fill the void in production left in Robinson's wake. But Brenamen was lost early in training camp to a knee injury that will cost him the season, and James and Gesicki have yet to make much impact.
To the surprise of many, Hackenberg has replaced Robinson fairly well with wideouts Geno Lewis (#7) and freshman Daesean Hamilton (#5), the team's leading receiver. Few expected much from Hamilton, a former three-star recruit from Virginia, who seems to be thriving in a lead role after a redshirt season in 2013.
The pair of Hamilton and Lewis have combined for 75 catches already, making up more than half of Penn State's completions as a team. Stopping the combination of Hackenberg and his outside receivers must be the top priority of the OSU defense as they pose, by far, the most serious threat.
With Hackenberg's arm strength, the Nittany Lions are able to spread their two outside receiving threat far to the outside, often lining outside the painted numbers on the field, and nearly at the sideline. With the receiver that far away from the ball, the cornerback over them is basically in man-to-man coverage, no matter what the defensive call may have been in the huddle, as the next-closest teammate in a zone might be 15 yards away.
Knowing they don't have any help coming (nor that there is much need to help stop the PSU running game), defensive backs often play very soft coverage over Lewis & Hamilton in these situations. But defenders can't play that far off, as Hackenberg has shown a good ability to recognize such coverages, and audible to a quick hitch, slant, or out from the receiver, firing the ball out immediately upon taking the snap.
Such quick strikes have effectively replaced the PSU rushing attack at times, allowing the offense to pick up four or five yards in a very quick, safe manner. When spreading the ball out like this proves to be effective, Donovan likes to call draw plays for his backs, as the numbers are often so far in their favor inside that the failures of the offensive line can be overcome.
But these failures up front have extended too far into every segment of the Nittany Lion offense for Hackenberg to overcome them. Though he leads the Big Ten in passing yards, #14 in blue and white has thrown only five touchdown passes, while giving away seven interceptions through six games.
Without a running game and often facing coverage designed to keep everything in front of them, scoring in the red zone has been nearly impossible. The Penn State offense has found the end zone in only 39% of their possessions that make it inside their opponent's 20-yard line, the fourth-worst such rate in the country.
However the red zone difficulties are not the biggest problem for Franklin, Donovan, and Hand. Keeping Hackenberg upright has proven to be the most difficult task at hand. Against Michigan, the Wolverine defense was able to take him down for six sacks, bringing the total to 20 on the year.
With a clear lack of talent and execution up front, the Penn State offense will have their hands full with the Buckeye defense. Though they've had some issues of their own this fall, Michigan's defense nearly brought the Nittany Lions to a halt, gaining only 214 yards in their matchup two weeks ago.
Against an even more talented unit up front led by Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett, and Adolphus Washington, it's hard to see a scenario in which the Nittany Lions put up many points. Their hope will be to break some long plays on the outside with Hamilton and Lewis against the Buckeye secondary, much like Cincinnati, and hope their defense can keep the game close.
Defense
Luckily for Franklin, the story on the other side of the ball has been much better. With the talent spread out a bit more evenly across the unit than their offensive counterparts, the Penn State defense has done a good job of mixing the old with the new, and seeing great results in the process.
During the Joe Paterno era, the Nittany Lion defense was every bit as predictable as they were effective. You didn't need to watch any film to know that they'd line up in a 4-3 front with Cover 3 behind it, bringing the strong safety down near the line to be an eighth defender in the box against the run.
But as offenses began spreading out further and further, the scheme had trouble adjusting, resulting in a number of mediocre seasons in the 2000's. But new defensive coordinator, Bob Shoop has re-installed many of these concepts, but has made sure the unit is still able to execute many of today's popular schemes at the same time.
Shoop's defense lines up primarily in a 4-3 Under front, keeping all three starting linebackers in the game against spread formations. Thanks to the talents of middle linebacker, Mike Hull (#43), outside linebacker Brandon Bell (#26) often spends much of his time outside the box, patrolling the "alleys" much in the same manner as Ohio State linebacker, Darron Lee.
Hull is the unquestioned leader of the unit, following in the tradition of former play-making Penn State middle linebackers like Paul Posluszny and Sean Lee. Though a bit under-sized, Hull is the most talented and effective linebacker the Buckeyes have seen this year, averaging nearly 11 tackles per contest, the second-highest total in the Big Ten. Perhaps most impressively, Hull leads the conference in solo tackles-per-game, showing that as long as he can get near the ball-carrier, he's going to take them down.
Hull is able to get to the ball so cleanly thanks to the strong play of his defensive line. Anchored on the inside by tackle Anthony Zettel (#98), and on the outside by ends Deion Barnes (#18) and C.J. Olaniyan (#86). The trio have combined for 16 tackles-for-loss, showing there are few weak links in the PSU front for an offense to attack.
The result has been the nation's best run defense through the first half of the season, allowing only 60 rushing yards-per-game. This isn't just a result of seeing few rushing attempts though, as Shoop's unit also leads the country at an impressive 2.01 yards-per-carry.
Though they often line up with two deep safeties and play Cover 4 against spread offenses, Shoop will sneak the strong safety into the box to help against the run like Penn State teams of the past when an offense brings a tight end into the game.
Most Penn State opponents have relied little on the running game as a result, and have instead decided to attack their secondary through the air, forcing the group to make tackles in space.
Northwestern's spread attack had a great deal of success in their matchup a few weeks ago, lighting up the Lions for a season-high 29 points, by spreading them out horizontally. With so much talent and emphasis near the ball, it makes sense to get it outside as quickly as possible.
This was most evident when the Wildcats would package a quick wide receiver screen with an inside run, giving the quarterback the option of handing off or throwing.
With the inside linebacker keeping his eyes inside to help stop the potential running play, the QB has an easy pitch and catch for the bubble screen on the outside, where the Wildcats have a three-on-two numerical advantage.
Northwestern continually hit the Penn State defense with this scheme that afternoon, not only forcing the defense to be wrong on every play, but tiring them out in the process. With scholarship limits still affecting depth, the Nittany Lions don't substitute very often, making ball-control and tempo that much more effective.
Although they haven't showed it much in the past few games (perhaps by design), the Buckeyes are more than capable of executing these packaged plays, and there's a good chance we see J.T. Barrett making similar reads Saturday.
Perhaps as a result of continual attacks through the air instead of on the ground, the Penn State pass defense has been just average, and the Buckeyes should have no problems finding open seams for Barrett to throw the ball.
The Buckeyes simply have a deeper and more talented group of receivers than the Penn State secondary can handle, and as long as the Buckeye offensive line can give Barrett time, he should have no problems picking them apart.
Perhaps the biggest adjustment to watch for in this department will be the snap count though, as Barrett has used a vocal snap count thus far, instead of the clap or hand motions used by Braxton Miller in the past. With Beaver Stadium rocking, the freshman quarterback and his center, Jacoby Boren, will have to be on the same page, not relying on shouting over the crowd noise, as well as not becoming predictable in motions for the silent count.
If Barnes, Zettel, and company are able to pick up on the snap count, getting passes off cleanly could be very difficult for Barrett, much like it was for Gary Nova of Rutgers. Nova was sacked three times and forced into five interceptions that night, as he rarely had much time or space to set up and throw.
Luckily, the Buckeyes have shut down the solid pass rushes of Cincinnati and Rutgers, showing an ability to handle pressure once the ball is snapped. The group has come a long way since the letdown against Virginia Tech, so simply hoping to beat them through talent won't be enough.
The matchup between the Buckeye offense and Penn State defense could be fun to watch, as both units have looked very, very good at times this season. But the gap between the the two teams when the ball switches hands appears too great for Franklin's troops to overcome. Though Franklin is doing his best to beat the Buckeyes on the recruiting trail, setting the stage for some very interesting matchups down the road, the 2014 contest looks to be weighted far in the favor of Ohio State.
